Scenario Tool - Clacton By-Election

Clacton By-Election: Scenario Explorer

Essex (East of England) · Constituency entirely within Tendring district · 22 wards

Last updated7 July 2026

Status - 7 July 2026 Nigel Farage will resign as Clacton MP and stand in the resulting by-election. No date set and no by-election polls published.

Scenario explorer

How to use: 1 Pick a baseline · 2 Drag the party, turnout and tactical sliders · 3 Read the map, and tap any ward for detail

Not a projection. This is a what-if tool - the numbers just follow the baseline and sliders you set.

Constituency vote share (your scenario)

Scenario controls

Baseline

Default: the 2024 General Election result. Ward shares are Britain Elects / New Statesman modelled estimates scaled to the official constituency totals.

Party shares

Each slider sets a party's raw share. The seven raw values are normalised to sum to 100 and the figure beside each slider is the normalised share used in the scenario. Sliders start at the selected baseline's shares; switching baseline resets them.

Overall turnout

58.7%

25%70%

Changes the implied number of ballots cast (electorate 78,245), not vote shares. PollCheck holds no Clacton-specific data on how turnout changes would fall between parties. Default: the GE2024 turnout of 58.7%.

Con voters moving to Reform UK

Lab voters moving to Reform UK

Grn/LD voters tactically to Labour

Each slider moves that percentage of the source party's current share to the destination party. All defaults are zero.

First place (your scenario)

Ward breakdown (modelled estimates, indicative)

Methodology and caveats

Read the methodology and caveats

Ward-level GE2024 figures are modelled estimates, not counted results. General election ballots are counted and declared at constituency level only. The per-ward GE2024 shares used here are Britain Elects / New Statesman modelled estimates, which carry an average margin of error of roughly 4 percentage points per ward. Ward estimates are scaled multiplicatively so that the 22 wards aggregate to the official constituency result (Reform UK 46.2%, Conservative 27.9%, Labour 16.2%, Liberal Democrats 4.4%, Green 4.2%, Others 1.1%; turnout 58.7%, electorate 78,245, 45,958 valid votes).

The PollCheck seat model nowcast is a general-election-context estimate, not a by-election forecast. It is the Clacton entry from the PollCheck seat model at the current national polling average - an estimate of how the seat would vote at a general election held now. By-elections routinely differ from general elections in turnout, candidate effects and tactical behaviour, and none of those differences are modelled here. When this baseline is selected, ward shares are derived by applying each ward's GE2024 relative strength to the nowcast constituency totals.

No by-election polling exists as of 7 July 2026 (the by-election was confirmed that day; no date has been set). PollCheck has run no by-election model for Clacton. This page therefore shows no win probabilities or confidence intervals: every number is deterministic arithmetic from the chosen baseline plus your slider settings.

Per-party share sliders set the constituency totals. Each slider holds a raw share for one party; the seven raw values are normalised to sum to 100, and the normalised figures shown beside each slider are the constituency shares used in the scenario. Sliders initialise at the selected baseline's shares, so with no adjustment the scenario reproduces the baseline. Restore Britain has no GE2024 ward-level data because the party did not exist in 2024, so its share is spread across wards using Reform UK's ward-level relative distribution as a donor template - the same approach the Makerfield explorer used for parties absent from the baseline election. Restore Britain's baseline share is taken from the seat model nowcast when that baseline is selected, and is zero under the GE2024 baseline.

Slider outputs are user-driven scenarios, not PollCheck projections. Party share sliders default to the selected baseline's shares, tactical sliders default to zero and the turnout slider defaults to the GE2024 turnout; PollCheck applies no default adjustment or tactical assumption. The turnout slider changes the implied number of ballots cast only - it does not move vote shares, because PollCheck holds no Clacton-specific evidence on how turnout changes would fall between parties.

Sources: Britain Elects / New Statesman GE2024 ward estimates; official 2024 General Election constituency result; PollCheck seat model scenario data. Full by-election coverage: pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton.