This by-election follows the death of Margaret Cooper, the Provost of South Lanarkshire, who was elected as an Independent in May 2022 with 24 per cent of first preferences after earlier serving as a Labour councillor. Avondale and Stonehouse elects three councillors by the single transferable vote; the SNP polled 28 per cent of first preferences across two candidates in 2022, the Conservatives 21 per cent and Labour 20 per cent. The SNP candidate, Leigh Payne, stood here in 2022 and polled 30 per cent in the neighbouring Larkhall by-election in July 2026, which Reform UK won. Nine candidates stood. The projection uses first preferences only and does not simulate transfers.
Every ward and councillor, who runs the council, and each by-election since May.
South Lanarkshire council page →| Party | Share |
|---|---|
| SNP | 27.6% |
| Labour | 20.0% |
| Reform UK | 19.6% |
| Conservative | 10.6% |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.6% |
| Green | 8.2% |
| Independent | 2.9% |
| Your Party | 1.2% |
| ADF | 0.3% |
Labour, Green, Liberal Democrats: fewer than 10 wins in 100 each.
Also on the ballot, not projected to win the seat: Conservative.
How often each candidate wins the seat across 10,000 simulations of this contest - chances of winning, not vote shares.
Scottish by-elections use the Single Transferable Vote: voters rank candidates and the count can transfer votes down the rankings. This projection models first preferences only. In 92 real Scottish council by-elections since 2007, the first-preference leader won 94 per cent of the time.
| Result | Conservative | Labour | Green | SNP | Independents and others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | 21% | 20% | 6% | 28% | 25% |
First-preference share of the vote at the 2022 Scottish local elections; leading party in bold. Scottish wards elect several councillors at once by the single transferable vote. In 2022 the ward elected one councillor each from SNP, Independents and others and Labour.
South Lanarkshire is a Scottish council: it runs every local service. Current control: Labour / Liberal Democrat / Independent.
Seats under the independents-and-others heading here have been won by independents at elections since 2022.
South Lanarkshire council page →
How every council in Britain stands →
Wards coloured by the party that led first preferences at the 2022 election; the by-election ward is outlined. Hover a ward for its 2022 result.
Clydesdale Holyrood seat, May 2026: SNP 36%, Labour 24%, Reform UK 22%.
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood seat, May 2026: SNP 38%, Labour 29%, Reform UK 23%.