By-election · London Updated

Holborn and St Pancras by-election

    Candidates

    Nominations closed 4pm, 15 September 2026 - 15 candidates
    PartyCandidateStatusSource
    LabourSagal Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council Profile
    Monster Raving LoonyBarmy Brunch Profile
    ConservativeEwan Cameron Profile
    IndependentTom Darwood Profile
    Climate PartyClare Fischer Profile
    Workers PartyGeorge Galloway, party leader Profile
    Restore BritainTyler Kurtis Johnson, a lawyer and school governor Profile
    Rejoin EUBriony Anne Lonbay Kapoor Profile
    Reform UKPeter Newman, former Metropolitan Police commander Profile
    UK VOICEKetankumar Pipaliya Profile
    GreenZack Polanski, party leader Profile
    Communist LeagueJonathan Silberman Profile
    Christian Peoples AllianceHelen Spiby-Vann Profile
    Liberal DemocratsPatrick Thomas Stillman Profile
    UKIPBen Walker Profile

    Nominated · Camden Council Statement of Persons Nominated, 15 September 2026. Acting Returning Officer: Jon Rowney. Camden's full ballot descriptions: Official Monster Raving Loony Party (Brunch), Climate Party (Fischer), Rejoin EU (Kapoor), UK VOICE safer and stronger UK (Pipaliya), Communist League (Silberman), Christian Peoples Alliance (Spiby-Vann) and UKIP - NO to Illegal Immigration (Walker). Tom Darwood stands with no description.

    PollCheck's by-election projection

    PollCheck's by-election model has Labour first and Green second, on 40.4% and 35.6%, a margin of 4.8 points. Across 10,000 simulations Labour win 76% of the time.

    Labour
    40.4−8.5
    Green
    35.6+25.2
    Reform UK
    7.7+1.6
    Conservative
    5.0−2.2
    Others
    3.6−17.9
    Galloway (WPB)
    3.0
    Liberal Democrats
    2.7−3.1
    Restore Britain
    2.1

    Change versus the 2024 general election, in points.

    PollCheck by-election model, central scenario.

    Constituency polls

    Published by-election polling
    FieldworkPollster · clientSampleLead
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    No by-election polling has been published yet. See how the seat has moved since 2024 for the nearest evidence.

    Any constituency polls will be listed here, with fieldwork dates, sample size and full party shares, as they appear. Until then the nearest guide is the May 2026 Camden ward results and the PollCheck general-election projection below.

    PollCheck's current projection

    On a general-election basis PollCheck's demographic model has Labour first and Green second in the seat, on shares of 39.5% and 27.9%, a margin of 11.6 points.

    Labour
    39.5−9.4
    Green
    27.9+17.5
    Conservative
    11.5+4.3
    Reform UK
    11.4+5.3
    Liberal Democrats
    8.0+2.2
    Others
    1.8−19.7

    Change versus the 2024 general election, in points.

    PollCheck demographic seat model, seven-poll average.

    Scenario explorer

    Frequently asked

    When is the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

    The by-election was held on Thursday 8 October 2026 and declared in the early hours of 9 October. The writ was moved on 7 September 2026, and Sir Keir Starmer left the seat on 2 September 2026.

    Why is there a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Sir Keir Starmer, the former Prime Minister, has stood down as MP, formally leaving the seat on 2 September 2026 by taking the Chiltern Hundreds. An MP leaving the Commons triggers a by-election in their seat.

    Who are the candidates in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

    Fifteen candidates are on the ballot. Labour have selected Sagal Abdi-Wali, the leader of Camden Council, the Greens their leader Zack Polanski, the Conservatives Ewan Cameron, the Liberal Democrats Patrick Stillman and Reform UK Peter Newman, a former Metropolitan Police commander. The Workers Party are standing their leader George Galloway, who replaces Hussain Shafiei, the Monster Raving Loony Party Barmy Brunch and Restore Britain Tyler Johnson, a lawyer. The other seven are Tom Darwood, standing with no description, Clare Fischer for the Climate Party, Briony Kapoor for Rejoin EU, Ketankumar Pipaliya for UK VOICE, Jonathan Silberman for the Communist League, Helen Spiby-Vann for the Christian Peoples Alliance and Ben Walker for UKIP. Andrew Feinstein, the independent who took 18.9% in 2024, is standing aside and has endorsed Polanski. The field is taken from Camden Council's Statement of Persons Nominated, published 15 September 2026.

    What happened at the last election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    In 2024 Labour's Keir Starmer won with 48.9% and a majority of 11,572 (30 points) over an independent, who took 18.9%. The Greens were third on 10.4%. Turnout was 54.1%.

    What do the 2026 Camden local elections show for this seat?

    In the May 2026 Camden locals, across the seat's wards, Labour took 38.8% to the Greens' 28.8%, with the Conservatives on 10.0%, Reform UK 8.5% and the Liberal Democrats 6.9%.

    Who won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

    Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali won with 12,292 votes (45.2%). The Green leader Zack Polanski was second on 8,928 (32.8%), a majority of 3,364 (12.4 points). Turnout was 38.76%.

    What was PollCheck's final projection for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

    PollCheck's final by-election projection, published 7 October 2026, had Labour first on 40.4% and the Greens second on 35.6%, with Labour winning 76% of 10,000 simulations.

    Are there any polls for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

    No constituency polling was published before polling day.

    What does the PollCheck model project for Holborn and St Pancras?

    PollCheck's demographic model has Labour first and the Greens second, 39.5% to 27.9%.

    Method note.