Birmingham Council Election 2026 Predictions
No party is projected to win a majority on Birmingham Council, with Reform UK winning the most seats (23 of 101).
| Party | Projected | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 21 (15-27) | 21 | 0 |
| Labour | 9 (8-18) | 52 | -43 |
| Liberal Democrats | 13 (12-15) | 13 | 0 |
| Green | 16 (9-20) | 2 | +14 |
| Reform UK | 23 (12-33) | 0 | +23 |
| Others | 19 (12-20) | 13 | +6 |
Key changes: -43 Lab, +23 Ref, +14 Green
Note: Green projected at 16 seats from a 12% average baseline. This projection is candidacy-dependent and will be revised when April nomination data is available.
Election type: All 101 seats up for election
Control: No overall control
Probability of control change: 100%
Last election (2022)
Conservative 22, Labour 65, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 2
Conservative 27.3% Labour 51.7% Liberal Democrats 14.8% Green 5.1% Others 1.0%
Key battleground wards
- Brandwood Kings Heath - Green leads Reform UK by 0.0pp
- Rubery Rednal - Conservative leads Reform UK by 0.4pp
- Kingstanding - Conservative leads Reform UK by 0.7pp
- Sutton Vesey - Reform UK leads Labour by 0.7pp
- Bournville Cotteridge - Reform UK leads Labour by 0.8pp