UK voting intention by age, sex, region and 2024 vote

Each figure is a weighted average of the last seven polls that published the breakdown. Polls with larger subsamples carry more weight, because they have a smaller margin of error. The window is counted in polls, not days: as a new poll arrives the oldest one drops out, and two polls released on the same day each count separately. This keeps the average current while smoothing out single-poll noise.

These breakdowns come from the crosstabs of national polls, not from dedicated demographic samples, so each group is small - usually 100 to 250 people. At 200 respondents the margin of error on a 30% share is around 6 points either way, against about 2 points on a full 1,800-person sample. Treat the figures as indicative trends rather than precise numbers, and give less weight to any single poll's movement, especially for smaller regions and for the youngest and oldest age groups.

Pollsters use different categories, so we standardise them. Age is grouped into 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+; where a pollster uses a non-standard band, such as 18-29, it is mapped to the closest bin, which can lose some precision. Sex is shown as Male and Female. Social class uses the NRS grades ABC1 and C2DE, and is published by fewer pollsters (mainly YouGov and Survation), so its coverage is thinner. Regional shares come from the regional crosstabs of national polls. SNP and Plaid Cymru appear only where a pollster reports them.

This shows where each party's current voters say they voted in 2024. If 40% of today's Green voters voted Labour last time, Green's bar shows 40% Labour. We count actual voters moving between parties rather than raw percentages, because 10% of a large group like Labour is more people than 80% of a small one like the Greens; each poll's 2024 base is used to weight the flows before averaging. The retention view flips this round and shows how many of a party's own 2024 voters it has kept. SNP and Plaid origins are left out, as recall of a past vote for them is less reliable.