← Thursday 20 August 2026

Harraby South

Cumberland · polled Thursday 20 August
Labour defending

Labour won the ward's last contest in May 2022 with 41 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 35 per cent. This is the first time the ward has voted since. The seat fell vacant when the sitting Labour councillor, Lucy Patrick, resigned in July 2026, citing personal reasons. Five candidates are standing.

Result
Reform UK gain from Labour
Party Share
Reform UK46.2%
Labour33.3%
Conservative16.8%
Green2.1%
Liberal Democrats1.6%

Projection published before polls closed
51 in 100
simulated outcomes
Reform UK: Slight favourite
Reform UK51 in 100
Labour30 in 100
Conservative13 in 100

Liberal Democrats, Green: fewer than 5 wins in 100 each.

How often each candidate wins the seat across 10,000 simulations of this contest - chances of winning, not vote shares.

Adjusted projection. This projection is adjusted from the model's automatic output. Reform did not stand in this ward at the last election (2022), so the model estimates its support rather than observing it, and it discounts Labour because the sitting councillor is not standing again. This raises Labour's projected share to reflect that its candidate, Ruth Alcroft, is a former Carlisle city councillor and parliamentary candidate, making the contest closer than the model's automatic estimate.

How this ward has voted
ResultConservativeLabourIndependents
May 202235%41%24%

Winning share of all votes cast in bold. Multi-member wards elect several councillors at once. Includes any county-division contest covering the same ground.

On the ballot
The council

Cumberland is a unitary authority: it runs every local service, from schools to bins. Current control: Labour.

Current composition of 46 seats
Conservative 8Labour 25Liberal Democrats 4Green 3Reform UK 1Independents and others 5

Seats under the independents-and-others heading here have been won by independents at elections since 2022.

How every council in Britain stands →

Wards coloured by the party that last won them; the by-election ward is outlined. Hover a ward for its last result.

Ward profile
Degree-educated24%
Owner-occupied68%
Social renting19%
Upper tier

There is no county council above Cumberland.

In Westminster

The ward is part of the Carlisle constituency. Labour MP Julie Minns won it at the 2024 general election with 39 per cent of the vote.

Spot an error, or have feedback on this page?
Council composition from Open Council Data. Candidates, candidate histories and polling-day information from Democracy Club. Historical ward results from the Local Elections Archive Project and Democracy Club. Boundary data contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right.