Carlisle
North West · County constituency · Cumberland
About the Carlisle constituency
Carlisle is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Julie Minns (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.4% to 28.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,200 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.5% and Reform UK on 31.1%, a margin of 3.5 points.
Who lives in Carlisle? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Carlisle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Carlisle
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Carlisle within Cumberland
Carlisle sits entirely within Cumberland Council. Cumberland was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cumberland | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | Harraby South | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 42% Lab 36% Con 18% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | Wetheral | Con HOLD | Con 52% LD 36% Lab 12% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | Harraby North | Lab HOLD | Lab 60% Con 22% LD 9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belah | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 36.4% | 2022 Green 45.4%vs Conservative 36.4% | - | 42.3% |
| Belle Vue | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2022 Labour 52.7%vs Conservative 47.3% | - | 31.7% |
| Botcherby | Labour 41.1%vs Reform 23.7% | 2022 Independent 39.6%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 29.4% |
| Brampton | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 32.4% | 2022 Conservative 42.9%vs Green 41.0% | - | 39.6% |
| Castle | Labour 46.9%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2022 Labour 48.2%vs Green 26.8% | - | 29.0% |
| Corby and Hayton | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 59.9%vs Independent 23.2% | - | 46.4% |
| Currock | Labour 49.6%vs Conservative 22.4% | 2022 Labour 63.2%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 23.9% |
| Dalston and Burgh | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 30.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 39.9% |
| Denton Holme | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 21.7% | 2022 Labour 58.8%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | 28.2% |
| Harraby North | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 25.2% | 2022 Labour 64.6%vs Conservative 30.9% | - | 24.3% |
| Harraby South | Labour 37.4%vs Reform 24.3% | 2022 Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 35.3% | - | 35.2% |
| Houghton and Irthington | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 27.5% | 2022 Conservative 59.2%vs Lib Dem 22.5% | - | 39.6% |
| Longtown | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 66.2%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 36.7% |
| Morton | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2022 Labour 46.5%vs Conservative 44.2% | - | 30.1% |
| Stanwix Urban | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 33.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.7%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | 52.1% |
| Upperby | Labour 46.7%vs Conservative 21.3% | 2022 Labour 65.8%vs Conservative 34.2% | - | 25.6% |
| Wetheral | Conservative 48.9%vs Labour 28.9% | 2022 Conservative 53.3%vs Labour 27.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Yewdale | Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2022 Labour 54.2%vs Conservative 45.8% | - | 37.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Carlisle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Carlisle at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | John Stevenson | 37.3% | 39.3% | 15.6% | 853 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | John Stevenson | 37.8% | 44.3% | 2.6% | 2,774 | 64.7%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | John Stevenson | 43.8% | 49.9% | 2.9% | 2,599 | 69.1%+4.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | John Stevenson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 34.5% | 56.5% | 5.0% | 11,290 | 67.5%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Julie Minns | 39.4% | 28.1% | 6.5% | 5,200 | 59.1%-8.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Carlisle
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Carlisle. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.6 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 66.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 66.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.6 / 57.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 65.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 28.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 67.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.6 / 63.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.3 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 67.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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