Grantham and Bourne
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Grantham and Bourne constituency
Grantham and Bourne is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Gareth Davies (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.4% to 26.6% for Labour, a majority of 4,496 votes on a 62.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.5% and the Conservatives on 29.9%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Grantham and Bourne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Grantham and Bourne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Grantham and Bourne
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Grantham and Bourne within South Kesteven and North Kesteven
Grantham and Bourne crosses council boundaries: South Kesteven (93%), North Kesteven (7%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Kesteven | 93% |
| North Kesteven | 7% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2025 | Aveland | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 41% Con 40% Grn 16% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | Belmont | Ref GAIN from Ind | Con 33% Ref 33% Other 20% |
| 28 Mar 2024 | Heckington Rural | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveland | Conservative 51.4%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 58.6%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | - | 38.8% |
| Belmont | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Independent 54.2%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 29.9% |
| Belvoir | Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 24.6% | 2023 Conservative 77.0%vs Labour 23.0% | - | 34.1% |
| Bourne Austerby | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Green 48.2%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 28.5% |
| Bourne East | Conservative 33.3%vs Reform 24.4% | 2023 Independent 45.5%vs Conservative 41.9% | - | 28.4% |
| Bourne West | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 21.8% | 2023 Conservative 31.4%vs Independent 30.0% | - | 51.3% |
| Grantham Arnoldfield | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Independent 40.9%vs Conservative 40.1% | - | 32.8% |
| Grantham Barrowby Gate | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 28.6% | 2023 Conservative 42.5%vs Independent 25.6% | - | 38.7% |
| Grantham Earlesfield | Labour 31.0%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Labour 50.4%vs Independent 49.6% | - | 15.3% |
| Grantham Harrowby | Labour 27.9%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Independent 69.0%vs Labour 18.0% | - | 26.9% |
| Grantham Springfield | Labour 31.2%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 41.2%vs Labour 25.2% | - | 30.3% |
| Grantham St Vincent's | Labour 32.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Green 32.2%vs Independent 29.7% | - | 35.2% |
| Grantham St Wulfram's | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Independent 46.2%vs Conservative 39.8% | - | 35.3% |
| Heckington Rural | Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Conservative 75.5%vs Labour 24.5% | - | 24.2% |
| Helpringham & Osbournby | Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 31.8% | 2023 Others 69.5%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | - |
| Lincrest | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 23.1% | 2019 Conservative 73.8%vs Labour 26.2% | - | 38.4% |
| Loveden Heath | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Independent 63.6%vs Conservative 36.4% | - | 40.4% |
| Morton | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 22.7% | 2019 Conservative 73.9%vs Labour 26.1% | - | 29.3% |
| Peascliffe & Ridgeway | Conservative 40.3%vs Labour 23.8% | 2023 Conservative 51.1%vs Independent 23.2% | - | 34.8% |
| Toller | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.5%vs Others 29.8% | - | 33.7% |
| Viking | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Independent 77.3%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 37.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Grantham and Bourne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Grantham and Bourne at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Phillips Sleaford and North Hykeham MP | 16.9% | 51.6% | 18.2% | 19,905 | 70.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Stephen Phillips Sleaford and North Hykeham MP | 17.3% | 56.2% | 5.7% | 24,115 | 70.4%+0.2 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Caroline Johnson Sleaford and North Hykeham MP | 25.8% | 64.2% | 4.1% | 25,237 | 72.4%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Caroline Johnson Sleaford and North Hykeham MP, pre-review boundary | 20.0% | 65.8% | 9.0% | 22,393 | 67.8% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Gareth Davies | 26.6% | 36.4% | 4.4% | 4,496 | 62.9%-4.9 |
Grantham and Bourne was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sleaford and North Hykeham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Grantham and Bourne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Grantham and Bourne. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave61.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.2 / 27.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.2 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 27.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.7 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.2 / 29.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.3 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.2 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 66.1vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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