North Shropshire
West Midlands · County constituency · Shropshire borough
About the North Shropshire constituency
North Shropshire is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Helen Morgan (Liberal Democrat), first elected in December 2021. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 52.9% to 22.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 15,311 votes on a 63.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 50.7% and Reform UK on 26.7%, a margin of 24.0 points.
Who lives in North Shropshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Shropshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Shropshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Shropshire within Shropshire
North Shropshire sits entirely within Shropshire Council. Shropshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Shropshire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellesmere Urban | Lib Dem 49.0%vs Conservative 23.5% | 2021 Conservative 51.8%vs Labour 40.0% | - | 30.2% |
| Gobowen, Selattyn and Weston Rhyn | Lib Dem 50.9%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2021 Conservative 57.2%vs Labour 22.6% | - | 32.4% |
| Llanymynech | Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 22.7% | 2021 Conservative 48.5%vs Lib Dem 38.7% | - | 36.1% |
| Market Drayton East | Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 22.2% | 2021 Conservative 58.3%vs Independent 27.2% | - | 34.8% |
| Market Drayton West | Lib Dem 52.5%vs Conservative 19.1% | 2021 Conservative 45.1%vs Independent 42.3% | - | 27.2% |
| Oswestry East | Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2021 Conservative 52.3%vs Green 31.9% | - | 25.9% |
| Oswestry South | Lib Dem 53.5%vs Conservative 18.9% | 2021 Green 55.7%vs Conservative 44.3% | - | 40.9% |
| Oswestry West | Lib Dem 49.7%vs Conservative 20.3% | 2021 Green 53.7%vs Conservative 36.0% | - | 35.7% |
| Prees | Lib Dem 51.0%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2021 Conservative 76.5%vs Lib Dem 23.5% | - | 36.7% |
| Ruyton and Baschurch | Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2021 Conservative 47.5%vs Lib Dem 41.0% | - | 41.0% |
| Shawbury | Lib Dem 54.8%vs Conservative 21.5% | 2021 Conservative 60.4%vs Lib Dem 39.6% | - | 35.0% |
| St Martin's | Lib Dem 52.8%vs Conservative 21.5% | 2021 Conservative 58.4%vs Labour 41.6% | - | 32.3% |
| St Oswald | Lib Dem 52.9%vs Conservative 21.8% | 2021 Conservative 58.6%vs Green 41.4% | - | 36.9% |
| The Meres | Lib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2021 Conservative 50.7%vs Lib Dem 49.3% | - | 44.5% |
| Wem | Lib Dem 62.2%vs Conservative 17.0% | 2021 Conservative 46.7%vs Independent 29.9% | - | 43.8% |
| Whitchurch North | Lib Dem 52.4%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2021 Conservative 59.1%vs Lib Dem 36.2% | - | 29.9% |
| Whitchurch South | Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 24.7% | 2021 Conservative 63.0%vs Lib Dem 37.0% | - | 28.9% |
| Whittington | Lib Dem 57.3%vs Conservative 20.7% | 2021 Conservative 51.4%vs Lib Dem 48.6% | - | 37.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Shropshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Shropshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Owen Paterson | 18.1% | 51.5% | 20.9% | 15,828 | 65.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Owen Paterson | 20.1% | 51.4% | 6.0% | 16,494 | 66.7%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Owen Paterson | 31.1% | 60.5% | 5.3% | 16,355 | 69.0%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Owen Paterson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.4% | 61.7% | 10.4% | 20,543 | 67.8%-1.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Helen Morgan | 6.9% | 22.0% | 52.9% | 15,311 | 63.9%-3.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North Shropshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Shropshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave59.9 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 67.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 24.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 29.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Leave59.9 / 58.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 26.1vs 30.2
- ↑Leave59.9 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+29.2 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.1 / 26.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.