Penrith and Solway
North West · County constituency
About the Penrith and Solway constituency
Penrith and Solway is a county constituency in the North West, spanning parts of Cumberland, Westmorland and Furness and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Markus Campbell-Savours (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Penrith and Solway with 40.6% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 29.9%, a majority of 5,257 votes. Turnout was 63.2%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 27.6% and the Conservatives on 25.8% in Penrith and Solway, a margin of 1.8 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Penrith and Solway is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 59.0% voted Leave in 2016). About 31.5% of residents hold a degree, 70.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 50 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Conservatives 4 times, Labour 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Penrith and Solway? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Penrith and Solway vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Penrith and Solway
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Penrith and Solway within Cumberland and Westmorland and Furness
Penrith and Solway crosses multiple council boundaries: Cumberland (69%), Westmorland and Furness (31%). English councils rotate their election cycles and none of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent ward result available for each ward.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cumberland | 69% |
| Westmorland and Furness | 31% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Penrith South | LD HOLD | LD 43% Ref 34% Grn 13% |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Keswick | Lab HOLD | — |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Wetheral | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Penrith and Solway at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Penrith and Solway at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 12.9% | 53.4% | 28.5% | 11,241 | 69.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 14.4% | 59.7% | 8.5% | 19,894 | 67.4%-2.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 26.2% | 60.4% | 7.8% | 15,910 | 71.3%+3.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Neil Hudson Penrith and The Border MP, pre-review boundary | 30.1% | 54.8% | 8.2% | 13,760 | 72.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Markus Campbell-Savours | 40.6% | 29.9% | 9.6% | 5,257 | 63.2%-9.5 |
Penrith and Solway was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Penrith and The Border (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Penrith and Solway
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Penrith and Solway. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Leave59.0 / 59.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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