Penrith and Solway
North West · County constituency
About the Penrith and Solway constituency
Penrith and Solway is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Markus Campbell-Savours (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.6% to 29.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,257 votes on a 63.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.7% and Reform UK on 26.7%, a margin of 6.0 points.
Who lives in Penrith and Solway? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Penrith and Solway vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Penrith and Solway
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Penrith and Solway within Cumberland and Westmorland and Furness
Penrith and Solway crosses council boundaries: Cumberland (69%), Westmorland and Furness (31%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Cumberland | 69% |
| Westmorland and Furness | 31% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Penrith South | LD HOLD | LD 43% Ref 34% Grn 13% |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Keswick | Lab HOLD | — |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Wetheral | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alston and Fellside | Labour 46.1%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2022 Labour 37.2%vs Independent 26.2% | - | 41.0% |
| Aspatria | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2022 Independent 40.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 34.4% |
| Bothel and Wharrels | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2022 Green 42.5%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 48.5% |
| Cockermouth North | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 28.3% | 2022 Labour 44.9%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 42.9% |
| Cockermouth South | Labour 51.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 Labour 44.8%vs Conservative 36.9% | - | 47.5% |
| Dalston and Burgh | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 30.3% | 2022 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 32.5% | - | 39.9% |
| Dearham and Broughton | Labour 41.9%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2022 Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 38.6% |
| Hesket and Lazonby | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2022 Conservative 41.4%vs Independent 35.1% | - | 41.0% |
| Keswick | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2022 Labour 67.9%vs Independent 16.2% | - | 46.2% |
| Maryport North | Labour 40.2%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2022 Labour 37.7%vs Independent 36.0% | - | 36.4% |
| Maryport South | Labour 47.0%vs Reform 21.4% | 2022 Labour 54.5%vs Independent 30.3% | - | 26.9% |
| Penrith North | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 25.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 49.2%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 38.0% |
| Penrith South | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 49.3%vs Conservative 26.7% | - | 29.0% |
| Solway Coast | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2022 Conservative 66.6%vs Green 33.4% | - | 34.0% |
| Thursby | Conservative 39.5%vs Labour 33.6% | 2022 Conservative 48.5%vs Independent 24.2% | - | 43.3% |
| Wetheral | Conservative 48.9%vs Labour 28.9% | 2022 Conservative 53.3%vs Labour 27.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Wigton | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2022 Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 34.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Penrith and Solway at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Penrith and Solway at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 12.9% | 53.4% | 28.5% | 11,241 | 69.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 14.4% | 59.7% | 8.5% | 19,894 | 67.4%-2.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Rory Stewart Penrith and The Border MP | 26.2% | 60.4% | 7.8% | 15,910 | 71.3%+3.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Neil Hudson Penrith and The Border MP, pre-review boundary | 30.1% | 54.8% | 8.2% | 13,760 | 72.7% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Markus Campbell-Savours | 40.6% | 29.9% | 9.6% | 5,257 | 63.2%-9.5 |
Penrith and Solway was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Penrith and The Border (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Penrith and Solway
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Penrith and Solway. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↑Leave59.0 / 59.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent14.1 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.7 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.6 / 23.3vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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