Clwyd East
Wales · County constituency
About the Clwyd East constituency
Clwyd East is a county constituency in Wales, spanning parts of Flintshire, Denbighshire and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Becky Gittins (Labour), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Clwyd East with 38.6% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 29.0%, a majority of 4,622 votes. Turnout was 62.4%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 24.8% and the Conservatives on 21.9% in Clwyd East, a margin of 2.9 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Clwyd East is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 56.0% voted Leave in 2016). About 32.8% of residents hold a degree, 72.5% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 49 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by Labour 4 times, the Conservatives 1 time (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Clwyd East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Clwyd East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Clwyd East
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Clwyd East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Clwyd East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Clwyd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Clwyd East | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clwyd | 99% | Reform UK 32.3% | Plaid Cymru 28.3% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Clwyd East within Flintshire and Denbighshire and 1 other council
Clwyd East crosses multiple council boundaries: Flintshire (56%), Denbighshire (42%), Wrexham (2%). English councils rotate their election cycles and none of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent ward result available for each ward.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Flintshire | 56% |
| Denbighshire | 42% |
| Wrexham | 2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Leeswood | Ref GAIN from Lab | Other 51% Ref 22% Lab 12% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Prestatyn Central | Con HOLD | Con 22% Other 21% Ref 18% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Prestatyn North | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 28 Mar 2024 | Brynford and Halkyn | Lab GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Clwyd East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Clwyd East at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 40.8% | 34.6% | 15.5% | 2,272 | 69.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 40.5% | 32.7% | 3.7% | 2,930 | 69.8%+0.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 52.2% | 41.4% | 2.6% | 4,240 | 72.9%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rob Roberts Delyn MP, pre-review boundary | 37.9% | 47.9% | 5.3% | 5,284 | 69.1% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Becky Gittins | 38.7% | 29.0% | 3.9% | 4,622 | 62.4%-6.7 |
Clwyd East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Delyn (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Clwyd East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Clwyd East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.