Clwyd East
Wales · County constituency
About the Clwyd East constituency
Clwyd East is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Becky Gittins (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.6% to 29.0% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,622 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 23.7% and the Conservatives on 22.6%, a margin of 1.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Clwyd East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Clwyd East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Clwyd East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Clwyd East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Clwyd East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Clwyd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Clwyd East | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clwyd | 99% | Reform UK 32.3% | Plaid Cymru 28.3% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Clwyd East within Flintshire and Denbighshire and 1 other council
Clwyd East crosses council boundaries: Flintshire (56%), Denbighshire (42%), Wrexham (2%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Flintshire | 56% |
| Denbighshire | 42% |
| Wrexham | 2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Argoed & New Brighton | LD HOLD | LD 40% Ref 32% PC 12% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Leeswood | Ref GAIN from Lab | Other 51% Ref 22% Lab 12% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Prestatyn Central | Con HOLD | Con 22% Other 21% Ref 18% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Prestatyn North | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 28 Mar 2024 | Brynford and Halkyn | Lab GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyn Valley | Labour 33.6%vs Conservative 27.3% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Argoed and New Brighton | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 52.9%vs Labour 18.1% | - | - |
| Brynford and Halkyn | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2022 Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 33.4% | - | - |
| Caerwys | Labour 33.6%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2017 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 44.0% | - | 42.0% |
| Cilcain | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 29.7% | 2022 Lib Dem 61.3%vs Independent 25.9% | - | - |
| Dyserth | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 33.6% | 2022 Independent 79.1%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | 33.3% |
| Greenfield | Labour 33.0%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2022 Independent 61.9%vs Conservative 20.0% | - | - |
| Gwernaffield and Gwernymynydd | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 35.2% | 2022 Lib Dem 34.8%vs Conservative 31.0% | - | 84.9% |
| Holywell Central | Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 22.9% | 2022 Labour 50.1%vs Independent 49.9% | - | - |
| Holywell East | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2022 Independent 45.2%vs Labour 35.5% | - | - |
| Holywell West | Labour 42.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2022 Labour 55.7%vs Independent 44.3% | - | - |
| Leeswood | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2022 Labour 60.6%vs Independent 39.4% | - | - |
| Llanasa and Trelawnyd | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2022 Independent 46.6%vs Labour 22.3% | - | - |
| Llandyrnog | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 26.4% | 2022 Independent 91.0%vs Conservative 9.0% | - | 52.8% |
| Llanfair Dyffryn Clwyd Gwyddelwern | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2022 Independent 67.2%vs Conservative 16.6% | - | 46.0% |
| Llangollen | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2022 Independent 68.5%vs Green 22.0% | - | - |
| Llangollen Rural | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2022 Independent 81.0%vs Plaid Cymru 18.9% | - | - |
| Moel Famau | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 31.6% | 2022 Independent 67.1%vs Conservative 32.9% | - | 46.2% |
| Mold East | Labour 46.4%vs Conservative 23.1% | 2022 Labour 72.0%vs Independent 28.0% | - | - |
| Mold South | Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2022 Labour 40.5%vs Independent 34.8% | - | - |
| Mold West | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 23.4% | 2022 Labour 44.9%vs Independent 42.8% | - | - |
| Mold: Broncoed | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 20.6% | Sitting Labour x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Mostyn | Labour 32.3%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2022 Independent 72.2%vs Lib Dem 9.7% | - | - |
| Northop | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2022 Independent 71.1%vs Labour 18.9% | - | - |
| Prestatyn Central | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2022 Green 48.5%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | - |
| Prestatyn East | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2022 Conservative 42.5%vs Independent 29.6% | - | 50.6% |
| Prestatyn Meliden | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2022 Labour 60.7%vs Conservative 39.3% | - | 33.9% |
| Prestatyn North | Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2022 Labour 39.8%vs Conservative 26.0% | - | 40.8% |
| Prestatyn South West | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2022 Labour 64.6%vs Conservative 35.4% | - | 38.5% |
| Ruthin | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2022 Independent 43.8%vs Plaid Cymru 25.3% | - | - |
| Tremeirchion | Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 30.6% | 2022 Independent 70.2%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 50.2% |
| Whitford | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2022 Independent 78.3%vs Labour 21.7% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Clwyd East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Clwyd East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 40.8% | 34.6% | 15.5% | 2,272 | 69.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 40.5% | 32.7% | 3.7% | 2,930 | 69.8%+0.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | David Hanson Delyn MP | 52.2% | 41.4% | 2.6% | 4,240 | 72.9%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rob Roberts Delyn MP, pre-review boundary | 37.9% | 47.9% | 5.3% | 5,284 | 69.1% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Becky Gittins | 38.7% | 29.0% | 3.9% | 4,622 | 62.4%-6.7 |
Clwyd East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Delyn (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Clwyd East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Clwyd East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 71.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 24.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 28.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.2 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.5 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3523.3 / 23.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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