Newark
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Newark constituency
Newark is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Robert Jenrick (Reform UK), first elected in June 2014. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 39.2% to 32.5% for Labour, a majority of 3,572 votes on a 67.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.6% and Reform UK on 26.0%, a margin of 7.6 points.
Who lives in Newark? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newark vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newark
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newark within Newark and Sherwood and Rushcliffe and 1 other council
Newark crosses council boundaries: Newark and Sherwood (71%), Rushcliffe (16%), Bassetlaw (13%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Newark and Sherwood | 71% |
| Rushcliffe | 16% |
| Bassetlaw | 13% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | Balderton North & Coddington | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 42% Con 37% Grn 13% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Castle | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 29% Con 27% Lab 12% |
| 1 May 2025 | Sturton | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 43% Con 30% Lab 18% |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Rampton | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balderton North & Coddington | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Independent 26.4% | - | 43.5% |
| Balderton South | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Independent 60.0%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 26.0% |
| Beacon | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Independent 61.5%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 23.9% |
| Bingham North | Conservative 44.6%vs Labour 32.2% | 2023 Independent 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5% | - | 25.4% |
| Bingham South | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 36.2% | 2023 Independent 54.2%vs Conservative 25.4% | - | 43.7% |
| Bridge | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Independent 59.0%vs Conservative 20.8% | - | 22.8% |
| Castle | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Independent 34.9%vs Labour 33.8% | - | 28.9% |
| Clayworth | Conservative 39.5%vs Labour 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Independent 48.3% | - | 38.9% |
| Collingham | Conservative 40.2%vs Labour 31.9% | 2023 Conservative 53.5%vs Lib Dem 38.0% | - | 38.3% |
| Cranmer | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 37.8% | 2023 Labour 56.0%vs Conservative 44.0% | - | 42.9% |
| Devon | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 30.7% | 2023 Conservative 41.0%vs Labour 34.8% | - | 32.1% |
| East Bridgford | Conservative 48.1%vs Labour 30.4% | 2023 Conservative 48.4%vs Labour 29.8% | - | 47.0% |
| East Markham | Conservative 45.8%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Conservative 66.0%vs Labour 21.2% | - | 36.0% |
| Farndon & Fernwood | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Lib Dem 25.9% | - | 45.6% |
| Muskham | Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 55.5%vs Green 24.1% | - | 46.3% |
| Newton | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 34.7% | 2023 Conservative 58.0%vs Labour 24.5% | - | 41.0% |
| Rampton | Conservative 41.8%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 70.6%vs Labour 29.4% | - | 32.3% |
| Southwell | Conservative 44.5%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 55.8% |
| Sturton | Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Labour 77.6%vs Conservative 22.4% | - | 36.2% |
| Sutton-on-Trent | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 31.0% | 2023 Conservative 51.4%vs Independent 48.6% | - | 41.8% |
| Trent | Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 43.5% | - | 49.4% |
| Tuxford and Trent | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.8%vs Labour 20.0% | - | 38.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newark at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newark at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Patrick Mercer | 22.3% | 53.9% | 20.0% | 16,152 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Robert Jenrick | 21.7% | 57.0% | 4.6% | 18,474 | 70.9%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Robert Jenrick | 29.7% | 62.7% | 5.1% | 18,149 | 72.9%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Robert Jenrick 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.9% | 63.1% | 9.6% | 21,697 | 72.4%-0.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Robert Jenrick | 32.5% | 39.2% | 5.7% | 3,572 | 67.0%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newark
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newark. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.3 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.2 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.3 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.2 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.3 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+28.2 / 28.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.3 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied70.9 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent11.9 / 13.2vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.3 / 27.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.