Vale of Glamorgan
Wales · County constituency · Vale of Glamorgan borough
About the Vale of Glamorgan constituency
Vale of Glamorgan is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Kanishka Narayan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.7% to 29.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,216 votes on a 61.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 24.2% and Labour on 21.6%, a margin of 2.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Vale of Glamorgan? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Vale of Glamorgan vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Vale of Glamorgan
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Vale of Glamorgan voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Vale of Glamorgan sits entirely within the Senedd constituency of Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Vale of Glamorgan | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | 99% | Plaid Cymru 33.5% | Reform UK 30.1% | 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Vale of Glamorgan within Vale of Glamorgan
Vale of Glamorgan sits entirely within Vale of Glamorgan Council. Vale of Glamorgan was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Vale of Glamorgan | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | Baruc | PC HOLD | PC 48% Ref 24% Con 12% |
| 11 Sep 2025 | Illtyd | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 31% Lab 28% LD 19% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baruc | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 37.9%vs Labour 25.6% | - | - |
| Buttrills | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 21.6% | 2022 Labour 41.3%vs Plaid Cymru 40.0% | - | - |
| Cadoc | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2022 Labour 49.2%vs Conservative 35.0% | - | - |
| Castleland | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 19.0% | 2022 Labour 44.9%vs Plaid Cymru 41.8% | - | - |
| Court | Labour 44.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2022 Labour 49.3%vs Plaid Cymru 33.6% | - | - |
| Cowbridge | Conservative 43.6%vs Labour 30.6% | 2022 Conservative 47.8%vs Independent 34.6% | - | - |
| Dyfan | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2022 Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | - |
| Gibbonsdown | Labour 47.9%vs Conservative 20.7% | 2022 Labour 64.5%vs Conservative 18.2% | - | - |
| Illtyd | Labour 42.5%vs Conservative 28.5% | 2022 Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 35.3% | - | - |
| Llandow | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 29.2% | 2022 Conservative 55.5%vs Labour 30.5% | - | - |
| Llantwit Major | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2022 Others 50.6%vs Labour 23.8% | - | - |
| Peterston-super-Ely | Conservative 33.2%vs Labour 29.9% | 2022 Independent 59.1%vs Conservative 21.6% | - | - |
| Rhoose | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 33.7% | 2022 Conservative 46.2%vs Independent 16.0% | - | - |
| St Athan | Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2022 Conservative 48.5%vs Labour 25.9% | - | - |
| St Bride's Major | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2022 Labour 45.4%vs Conservative 37.8% | - | - |
| Wenvoe | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 30.6% | 2022 Conservative 58.9%vs Labour 41.1% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Vale of Glamorgan at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Vale of Glamorgan at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Alun Cairns | 32.9% | 41.8% | 15.2% | 4,307 | 69.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Alun Cairns | 32.6% | 46.0% | 2.6% | 6,880 | 70.5%+1.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Alun Cairns | 43.4% | 47.5% | 1.9% | 2,190 | 72.6%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alun Cairns 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.9% | 49.1% | 0.0% | 2,566 | 71.0%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Kanishka Narayan | 38.7% | 29.5% | 3.5% | 4,216 | 61.5%-9.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Vale of Glamorgan
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Vale of Glamorgan. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 72.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 14.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 68.9vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 66.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 17.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 16.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied70.5 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent16.0 / 15.8vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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