Constituency profile

Frome and East Somerset

South West · County constituency

Anna Sabine MP
Sitting MP

Anna Sabine

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LDCCCLD
Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 2/5
EU referendum 2016
51.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +0.0pp below mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +2.5pp
vs Reform UK 28.4%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the Frome and East Somerset constituency

Frome and East Somerset is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Anna Sabine (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 35.5% to 23.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,415 votes on a 65.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 30.9% and Reform UK on 28.4%, a margin of 2.5 points.

Who lives in Frome and East Somerset? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
51.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
32.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
71.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
27.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
25.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Frome and East Somerset vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 5,415 votes (11.6pp) · turnout 65.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Frome and East Somerset

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Frome and East Somerset within Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset

Frome and East Somerset crosses council boundaries: Somerset (60%), Bath and North East Somerset (40%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Somerset
33 LSOAs
60%
Bath and North East Somerset
22 LSOAs
40%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 May 2024Mendip South
Somerset
LD HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bathavon SouthLib Dem 47.5%vs Conservative 23.4%2023 Lib Dem 54.4%vs Conservative 29.0%-46.4%
Frome EastLib Dem 33.4%vs Conservative 20.3%2022 Green 37.2%vs Lib Dem 29.6%-66.2%
Frome NorthLib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 24.7%2022 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Conservative 28.5%-83.4%
Frome WestLib Dem 38.1%vs Green 18.9%2022 Green 46.7%vs Lib Dem 35.9%-76.1%
Mendip Central and EastLib Dem 37.1%vs Conservative 27.6%2022 Conservative 43.0%vs Lib Dem 34.3%-44.3%
Mendip HillsLib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 25.4%2022 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 41.1%-41.0%
Mendip SouthLib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 26.4%2022 Lib Dem 52.7%vs Conservative 47.3%-43.3%
Midsomer Norton NorthLib Dem 33.9%vs Conservative 23.4%2023 Lib Dem 29.2%vs Independent 26.9%-34.0%
Midsomer Norton RedfieldConservative 29.4%vs Lib Dem 26.9%2023 Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 23.4%-22.9%
PeasedownLib Dem 28.5%vs Conservative 25.9%2023 Independent 38.9%vs Labour 26.9%-31.5%
RadstockLib Dem 32.9%vs Conservative 21.2%2023 Labour 40.7%vs Lib Dem 23.3%-29.3%
WestfieldLib Dem 27.0%vs Conservative 21.6%2023 Labour 56.3%vs Conservative 21.4%-21.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Frome and East Somerset at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Frome and East Somerset at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLD holdDavid Heath Somerton and Frome MP4.4%44.5%47.5%3.2% UKIP-0.4%1,81774.3%
2015predecessorCon gain from LDDavid Warburton Somerton and Frome MP7.3%53.0%19.4%10.7% UKIP9.0%0.6%20,26872.4%-1.9
2017predecessorCon holdDavid Warburton Somerton and Frome MP17.2%56.7%20.9%-3.7%1.6%22,90675.7%+3.3
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Warburton Somerton and Frome MP, pre-review boundary21.2%49.3%23.5%-6.1%-12,39568.4%
2024LD gain from ConAnna Sabine13.7%23.9%35.5%13.8% Ref10.9%2.2%5,41565.3%-3.1

Frome and East Somerset was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Somerton and Frome (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Frome and East Somerset

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Frome and East Somerset. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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