Constituency profile

South Norfolk

East of England · County constituency · South Norfolk borough

Ben Goldsborough MP
Sitting MP

Ben Goldsborough

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
County constituency, South Norfolk council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
50.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -1.0pp below mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +2.2pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the South Norfolk constituency

South Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Ben Goldsborough (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.0% to 29.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,826 votes on a 67.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 27.0% and the Conservatives on 24.8%, a margin of 2.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in South Norfolk? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
50.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
35.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
73.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
25.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
25.2%
UK average ~28%

How did South Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 2,826 votes (5.7pp) · turnout 67.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of South Norfolk

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

South Norfolk within South Norfolk

South Norfolk sits entirely within South Norfolk Council. South Norfolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
South Norfolk
56 LSOAs
100%

Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
ForehoeConCon 28% Ref 22% Lab 18%49.4%
HensteadLDLD 30% Ref 28% Con 20%52.1%
HethersettLabLab 26% Ref 26% Con 26%50.2%
HinghamRefRef 30% LD 26% Con 22%47.1%
LoddonConCon 29% Ref 27% Lab 23%52.6%
Long StrattonRefRef 35% Independent 22% Con 15%48.6%
Waveney ValleyRefRef 35% Con 22% Grn 20%51.4%
WymondhamConCon 35% Ref 25% Grn 18%48.9%
Yare ValleyRefRef 28% Con 26% Grn 21%41.8%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
22 Jan 2026Central Wymondham
South Norfolk
Con HOLDCon 31% Grn 26% Ref 21%
29 Sep 2023South Wymondham
South Norfolk
LD HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BrookeConservative 33.2%vs Labour 31.2%2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Green 24.6%-43.9%
Central WymondhamLabour 36.7%vs Conservative 28.9%2023 Conservative 37.5%vs Green 31.0%-40.8%
CringlefordLabour 38.0%vs Conservative 27.8%2023 Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 42.9%-45.0%
EastonConservative 35.9%vs Labour 31.9%2023 Conservative 59.6%vs Labour 40.4%-32.6%
ForncettConservative 31.5%vs Labour 31.2%2023 Conservative 38.0%vs Lib Dem 28.9%-33.7%
HempnallLabour 33.4%vs Conservative 30.5%2023 Conservative 53.6%vs Labour 46.4%-36.3%
HethersettLabour 36.6%vs Conservative 28.8%2023 Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 34.0%-46.5%
Loddon & ChedgraveLabour 42.3%vs Conservative 28.7%2023 Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 37.6%-37.6%
Mulbarton & Stoke Holy CrossConservative 31.7%vs Labour 30.7%2023 Lib Dem 49.9%vs Conservative 33.6%-38.5%
Newton FlotmanLabour 32.0%vs Conservative 30.3%2023 Independent 41.3%vs Conservative 33.4%-40.0%
North WymondhamLabour 35.0%vs Conservative 27.1%2023 Conservative 45.7%vs Labour 28.4%-41.1%
Old CostesseyLabour 36.0%vs Conservative 23.0%2023 Lib Dem 39.2%vs Labour 32.5%-28.7%
Poringland, Framinghams & TrowseLabour 34.3%vs Conservative 32.7%2023 Conservative 52.1%vs Labour 31.7%-48.4%
RocklandLabour 36.7%vs Conservative 32.8%2023 Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 36.0%-41.8%
South WymondhamLabour 36.9%vs Conservative 22.5%2023 Lib Dem 48.4%vs Conservative 27.4%-32.5%
StrattonLabour 34.1%vs Conservative 31.5%2023 Conservative 45.7%vs Labour 42.5%-26.6%
ThurltonConservative 30.8%vs Labour 30.5%2023 Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 39.3%-37.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for South Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won South Norfolk at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdRichard Bacon13.2%49.3%29.4%4.2% UKIP1.8%2.0%10,94072.2%
2015Con holdRichard Bacon18.4%54.3%8.2%13.7% UKIP5.4%-20,49370.8%-1.4
2017Con holdRichard Bacon30.9%58.2%8.3%-2.5%-16,67873.6%+2.8
2019notionalConservative winnerRichard Bacon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary23.4%56.5%17.0%-3.2%-17,17574.3%+0.7
2024Lab gain from ConBen Goldsborough35.0%29.3%11.6%15.3% Ref8.0%0.8%2,82667.0%-7.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like South Norfolk

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Norfolk. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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