Hazel Grove
North West · County constituency · Stockport borough
About the Hazel Grove constituency
Hazel Grove is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Lisa Smart (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 37.7% to 23.5% for Labour, a majority of 6,500 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 34.9% and Reform UK on 25.5%, a margin of 9.4 points.
Who lives in Hazel Grove? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hazel Grove vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hazel Grove
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hazel Grove within Stockport
Hazel Grove sits entirely within Stockport Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bredbury & Woodley | Lib Dem 36.9%vs Labour 25.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Reform 37.3% | Lib Dem share +6.4pp | 42.4% |
| Bredbury Green & Romiley | Lib Dem 39.2%vs Labour 20.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Reform 29.6% | Lib Dem share +6.3pp | 43.5% |
| Hazel Grove | Lib Dem 36.7%vs Conservative 24.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.4%vs Reform 35.7% | Lib Dem share +0.7pp | 43.7% |
| Manor | Labour 34.5%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | May 2026 Reform 36.2%vs Labour 23.9% | Labour→Reform +15.6pp | 41.1% |
| Marple North | Lib Dem 40.4%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 52.2%vs Reform 17.5% | Lib Dem share +11.8pp | 54.7% |
| Marple South & High Lane | Lib Dem 42.1%vs Labour 19.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.3%vs Reform 25.3% | Lib Dem share +5.2pp | 48.6% |
| Norbury & Woodsmoor | Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 26.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.3%vs Reform 25.9% | Lib Dem share +0.6pp | 48.8% |
| Offerton | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Labour 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.7%vs Reform 30.5% | Lib Dem share -3.1pp | 43.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hazel Grove at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hazel Grove at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Andrew Stunell | 12.5% | 33.6% | 48.8% | 6,371 | 67.4% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | William Wragg | 17.5% | 41.4% | 26.2% | 6,552 | 68.5%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | William Wragg | 20.5% | 45.4% | 32.9% | 5,514 | 69.9%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | William Wragg 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.3% | 45.6% | 37.2% | 4,219 | 69.2%-0.7 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Lisa Smart | 23.5% | 19.6% | 37.7% | 6,500 | 63.1%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hazel Grove
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hazel Grove. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.4 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 25.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3524.9 / 24.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.4 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+28.0 / 29.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.