North East Somerset and Hanham
South West · County constituency
About the North East Somerset and Hanham constituency
North East Somerset and Hanham is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Dan Norris (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.6% to 30.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,319 votes on a 69.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 28.8% and Reform UK on 28.0%, a margin of 0.8 points.
Who lives in North East Somerset and Hanham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North East Somerset and Hanham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North East Somerset and Hanham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North East Somerset and Hanham within Bath and North East Somerset and South Gloucestershire
North East Somerset and Hanham crosses council boundaries: Bath and North East Somerset (56%), South Gloucestershire (44%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bath and North East Somerset | 56% |
| South Gloucestershire | 44% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | Longwell Green | Con HOLD | Con 37% Ref 27% LD 20% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Mendip | LD HOLD | LD 57% Ref 22% Con 10% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Saltford | Ind GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitton & Oldland Common | Labour 43.6%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 43.5%vs Green 22.1% | - | 35.0% |
| Chew Valley | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 31.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.6%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 44.8% |
| Clutton & Farmborough | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Green 55.3%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 44.8% |
| Hanham | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Conservative 47.2%vs Labour 27.8% | - | 38.6% |
| High Littleton | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 38.1% |
| Keynsham East | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.4%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 44.3% |
| Keynsham North | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 30.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Keynsham South | Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Longwell Green | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Conservative 54.8%vs Lib Dem 32.0% | - | 39.2% |
| Mendip | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 30.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 75.3%vs Conservative 16.4% | - | 46.6% |
| Parkwall & Warmley | Labour 43.4%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 40.4% | - | 27.7% |
| Paulton | Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 21.0% | 2023 Labour 72.0%vs Conservative 16.0% | - | 20.8% |
| Publow & Whitchurch | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 34.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | 36.2% |
| Saltford | Conservative 35.4%vs Labour 32.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.6%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | 50.2% |
| Timsbury | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.1%vs Conservative 17.1% | - | 46.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North East Somerset and Hanham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North East Somerset and Hanham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Jacob Rees-Mogg North East Somerset MP | 31.7% | 41.3% | 22.3% | 4,914 | 75.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Jacob Rees-Mogg North East Somerset MP | 24.8% | 49.8% | 7.9% | 12,749 | 73.7%-1.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Jacob Rees-Mogg North East Somerset MP | 34.7% | 53.6% | 8.3% | 10,235 | 75.7%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jacob Rees-Mogg North East Somerset MP, pre-review boundary | 26.2% | 54.7% | 15.0% | 16,389 | 78.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Dan Norris | 40.6% | 30.2% | 7.6% | 5,319 | 69.2%-9.4 |
North East Somerset and Hanham was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North East Somerset (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North East Somerset and Hanham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North East Somerset and Hanham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 78.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.5 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 8.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 12.4vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.5 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 11.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied76.4 / 77.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.5 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent11.1 / 9.5vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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