South Leicestershire
East Midlands · County constituency
About the South Leicestershire constituency
South Leicestershire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Alberto Costa (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 24.8% for Labour, a majority of 5,506 votes on a 65.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.8% and the Conservatives on 31.7%, a margin of 3.1 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in South Leicestershire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Leicestershire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Leicestershire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Leicestershire within Blaby and Harborough
South Leicestershire crosses council boundaries: Blaby (65%), Harborough (35%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Blaby | 65% |
| Harborough | 35% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | Lutterworth East | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 28% Con 27% Lab 19% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Fleckney | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 35% LD 29% Con 26% |
| 1 May 2025 | Glen Parva | Ref GAIN from LD | Ref 43% LD 35% Con 11% |
| 22 Dec 2023 | Glen Parva | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaby | Conservative 30.2%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 70.0%vs Conservative 19.2% | - | 31.6% |
| Bosworth | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 52.5%vs Labour 23.2% | - | 34.3% |
| Broughton Astley South & Leire | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 21.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 30.3% |
| Broughton Astley-Primethorpe & Sutton | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 22.9% | 2023 Conservative 50.6%vs Lib Dem 19.2% | - | 24.7% |
| Cosby & South Whetstone | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 58.5%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | - | 33.5% |
| Countesthorpe | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 47.2%vs Lib Dem 46.9% | - | 35.1% |
| Dunton | Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 20.1% | 2023 Conservative 62.5%vs Labour 23.1% | - | 40.5% |
| Enderby | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 25.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.2%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 30.0% |
| Fleckney | Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 39.1%vs Lib Dem 27.3% | - | 42.2% |
| Fosse Highcross | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 62.5%vs Labour 15.1% | - | 36.6% |
| Fosse Normanton | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Labour 27.0% | - | 28.6% |
| Fosse Stoney Cove | Conservative 33.1%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.1%vs Conservative 43.9% | - | 28.6% |
| Glen Parva | Labour 27.7%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.2%vs Conservative 14.8% | - | 28.2% |
| Leicester Forest & Lubbesthorpe | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 47.3%vs Lib Dem 39.0% | - | 27.7% |
| Lutterworth East | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Labour 39.6%vs Lib Dem 33.2% | - | 42.9% |
| Lutterworth West | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 39.7% |
| Misterton | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 18.9% | 2023 Conservative 41.3%vs Lib Dem 37.7% | - | 42.1% |
| Narborough & Littlethorpe | Conservative 32.7%vs Labour 27.2% | 2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | - | 37.0% |
| North Whetstone | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Conservative 41.7%vs Lib Dem 27.5% | - | 23.1% |
| Ullesthorpe | Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Conservative 55.7%vs Labour 24.1% | - | 39.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Leicestershire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Leicestershire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrew Robathan | 20.9% | 49.5% | 21.0% | 15,524 | 71.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Alberto Costa | 22.0% | 53.2% | 7.4% | 16,824 | 70.2%-1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Alberto Costa | 28.5% | 61.4% | 4.2% | 18,631 | 71.8%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alberto Costa 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 19.9% | 66.5% | 9.6% | 25,534 | 72.4%+0.6 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Alberto Costa | 24.8% | 35.6% | 14.8% | 5,506 | 65.4%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Leicestershire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Leicestershire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied77.2 / 74.3vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 10.5vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 14.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.2 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.5vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied77.2 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent9.5 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied77.2 / 73.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 12.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.1 / 57.2vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.2 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave58.1 / 58.6vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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