Constituency profile

Selby

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency

Keir Mather MP
Sitting MP

Keir Mather

Labour

First elected July 2023

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
57.2% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.3pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +4.5pp
vs Reform UK 28.5%
NorthernLeave-leaning

About the Selby constituency

Selby is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Keir Mather (Labour), first elected in July 2023. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.3% to 25.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,195 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.0% and Reform UK on 28.5%, a margin of 4.5 points.

Who lives in Selby? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.2%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
30.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
73.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
25.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Selby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 10,195 votes (20.7pp) · turnout 63.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Selby

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Selby within North Yorkshire and Leeds

Selby crosses council boundaries: North Yorkshire (77%), Leeds (23%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
North Yorkshire
46 LSOAs
77%
Leeds
14 LSOAs
23%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Barlby & RiccallLabour 46.8%vs Conservative 26.8%2022 Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 45.6%--
Brayton & BarlowLabour 43.3%vs Conservative 28.8%2022 Conservative 57.2%vs Labour 42.8%--
Camblesforth & CarltonLabour 38.6%vs Conservative 30.6%2022 Conservative 58.6%vs Labour 41.4%--
Cawood & EscrickLabour 43.9%vs Conservative 26.7%2022 Independent 47.8%vs Labour 27.7%--
Cliffe & North DuffieldLabour 43.0%vs Conservative 30.0%2022 Conservative 55.2%vs Labour 44.8%--
Kippax & MethleyLabour 54.1%vs Reform 20.4%May 2026 Labour 41.8%vs Reform 38.1%
Labour share
-12.3pp
44.4%
Monk Fryston & South MilfordLabour 42.9%vs Conservative 30.9%2022 Conservative 53.6%vs Labour 36.3%--
OsgoldcrossLabour 38.5%vs Conservative 27.8%2022 Independent 66.4%vs Conservative 20.1%-23.4%
Selby EastLabour 50.1%vs Conservative 21.2%2022 Labour 53.7%vs Conservative 32.0%--
Selby WestLabour 45.3%vs Conservative 24.9%2022 Labour 53.9%vs Conservative 36.6%--
Sherburn in ElmetLabour 45.3%vs Conservative 27.8%2022 Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 36.9%-22.5%
Thorpe Willoughby & HambletonLabour 42.4%vs Conservative 30.4%2022 Conservative 56.2%vs Labour 43.8%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Selby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Selby at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdNigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP25.7%49.4%17.7%3.2% UKIP-4.0%12,26571.1%
2015predecessorCon holdNigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP26.8%52.5%3.6%14.0% UKIP2.8%0.3%13,55769.4%-1.7
2017predecessorCon holdNigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP34.1%58.7%4.1%3.1% UKIP--13,77273.9%+4.5
2019notionalConservative winnerNigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP, pre-review boundary29.8%58.0%6.0%-3.0%3.2%14,83870.6%
2024Lab gain from ConKeir Mather46.3%25.6%3.6%19.4% Ref5.0%-10,19563.1%-7.5

Selby was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Selby and Ainsty (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Selby

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Selby. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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