Selby
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency
About the Selby constituency
Selby is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Keir Mather (Labour), first elected in July 2023. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.3% to 25.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,195 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.0% and Reform UK on 28.5%, a margin of 4.5 points.
Who lives in Selby? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Selby vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Selby
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Selby within North Yorkshire and Leeds
Selby crosses council boundaries: North Yorkshire (77%), Leeds (23%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| North Yorkshire | 77% | — |
| Leeds | 23% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barlby & Riccall | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2022 Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 45.6% | - | - |
| Brayton & Barlow | Labour 43.3%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2022 Conservative 57.2%vs Labour 42.8% | - | - |
| Camblesforth & Carlton | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2022 Conservative 58.6%vs Labour 41.4% | - | - |
| Cawood & Escrick | Labour 43.9%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2022 Independent 47.8%vs Labour 27.7% | - | - |
| Cliffe & North Duffield | Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2022 Conservative 55.2%vs Labour 44.8% | - | - |
| Kippax & Methley | Labour 54.1%vs Reform 20.4% | May 2026 Labour 41.8%vs Reform 38.1% | Labour share -12.3pp | 44.4% |
| Monk Fryston & South Milford | Labour 42.9%vs Conservative 30.9% | 2022 Conservative 53.6%vs Labour 36.3% | - | - |
| Osgoldcross | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 Independent 66.4%vs Conservative 20.1% | - | 23.4% |
| Selby East | Labour 50.1%vs Conservative 21.2% | 2022 Labour 53.7%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | - |
| Selby West | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2022 Labour 53.9%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | - |
| Sherburn in Elmet | Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 36.9% | - | 22.5% |
| Thorpe Willoughby & Hambleton | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2022 Conservative 56.2%vs Labour 43.8% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Selby at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Selby at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP | 25.7% | 49.4% | 17.7% | 12,265 | 71.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP | 26.8% | 52.5% | 3.6% | 13,557 | 69.4%-1.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP | 34.1% | 58.7% | 4.1% | 13,772 | 73.9%+4.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty MP, pre-review boundary | 29.8% | 58.0% | 6.0% | 14,838 | 70.6% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Keir Mather | 46.3% | 25.6% | 3.6% | 10,195 | 63.1%-7.5 |
Selby was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Selby and Ainsty (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Selby
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Selby. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.4 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↑Leave57.2 / 56.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.4 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Leave57.2 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.4 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↑Leave57.2 / 58.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.4 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.4 / 12.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.4 / 73.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent12.9 / 13.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.4 / 12.2vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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