Constituency profile

North West Leicestershire

East Midlands · County constituency · North West Leicestershire borough

Amanda Hack MP
Sitting MP

Amanda Hack

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East Midlands
County constituency, North West Leicestershire council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
60.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +8.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +0.8pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave area

About the North West Leicestershire constituency

North West Leicestershire is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Amanda Hack (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.7% to 32.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,012 votes on a 62.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.1% and the Conservatives on 28.3%, a margin of 0.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in North West Leicestershire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
60.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
29.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
71.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
27.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.9%
UK average ~28%

How did North West Leicestershire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 1,012 votes (2.1pp) · turnout 62.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of North West Leicestershire

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

North West Leicestershire within North West Leicestershire

North West Leicestershire sits entirely within North West Leicestershire Council. North West Leicestershire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North West Leicestershire
57 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 May 2024Snibston South
North West Leicestershire
Lab HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Ashby CastleConservative 37.5%vs Labour 28.7%2023 Conservative 49.5%vs Green 37.6%-44.4%
Ashby HolywellLabour 37.2%vs Conservative 31.7%2023 Labour 51.8%vs Conservative 41.4%-34.6%
Ashby IvanhoeLabour 41.2%vs Conservative 29.7%2023 Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 31.9%-36.8%
Ashby Money HillLabour 35.4%vs Conservative 35.2%2023 Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 43.9%-33.9%
Ashby WillesleyLabour 42.7%vs Conservative 28.6%2023 Labour 59.1%vs Conservative 40.9%-37.5%
Ashby WouldsLabour 35.9%vs Conservative 32.4%2023 Labour 54.0%vs Conservative 36.5%-27.7%
BardonLabour 33.4%vs Conservative 29.8%2023 Lib Dem 42.2%vs Labour 30.5%-26.0%
BlackfordbyLabour 34.3%vs Conservative 34.1%2023 Conservative 52.2%vs Labour 41.0%-33.3%
Broom LeysConservative 35.1%vs Labour 32.1%2023 Lib Dem 38.2%vs Conservative 37.6%-37.4%
Castle Donington CastleLabour 34.7%vs Conservative 30.1%2023 Independent 43.6%vs Conservative 23.2%-28.2%
Castle Donington CentralConservative 31.7%vs Labour 26.9%2023 Independent 67.5%vs Conservative 17.5%-34.2%
Castle RockConservative 31.2%vs Labour 31.0%2023 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Conservative 36.0%-34.0%
Coalville EastLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 29.8%2023 Lib Dem 36.8%vs Labour 32.3%-31.6%
Coalville WestLabour 39.5%vs Conservative 23.7%2023 Labour 50.7%vs Conservative 18.4%-22.6%
Daleacre HillLabour 40.8%vs Conservative 28.3%2023 Labour 60.7%vs Conservative 26.7%-29.2%
Ellistown & BattleflatConservative 38.5%vs Labour 29.9%2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 30.4%-25.1%
GreenhillLabour 37.5%vs Conservative 23.8%2023 Lib Dem 46.0%vs Labour 34.0%-23.0%
HermitageLabour 37.7%vs Conservative 28.0%2023 Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 29.7%-31.7%
Holly HayesLabour 34.2%vs Conservative 33.6%2023 Conservative 50.9%vs Labour 39.9%-32.9%
Hugglescote St John'sLabour 38.4%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Independent 34.2%vs Labour 33.0%-29.5%
Hugglescote St Mary'sLabour 39.0%vs Conservative 32.4%2023 Labour 47.4%vs Conservative 37.4%-31.4%
Ibstock EastConservative 35.4%vs Labour 33.9%2023 Conservative 47.0%vs Labour 40.8%-26.1%
KegworthConservative 33.0%vs Labour 32.1%2023 Independent 45.4%vs Labour 25.6%-35.5%
Long Whatton & DiseworthConservative 38.6%vs Labour 32.8%2023 Conservative 60.1%vs Labour 32.5%-43.6%
Measham NorthConservative 35.7%vs Labour 33.7%2023 Conservative 56.1%vs Labour 43.9%-33.1%
Measham SouthLabour 37.6%vs Conservative 30.1%2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 37.0%-24.6%
Ravenstone & PackingtonConservative 41.1%vs Labour 27.7%2023 Conservative 55.7%vs Labour 27.6%-37.2%
Sence ValleyLabour 35.4%vs Conservative 33.0%2023 Labour 50.8%vs Conservative 41.3%-28.1%
Snibston NorthLabour 34.0%vs Conservative 28.4%2023 Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 32.3%-24.1%
Snibston SouthLabour 46.1%vs Conservative 23.0%2023 Labour 51.8%vs Lib Dem 30.6%-22.1%
ThornboroughLabour 37.2%vs Conservative 32.9%2023 Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 39.3%-39.0%
ThringstoneLabour 38.0%vs Conservative 28.3%2023 Labour 52.5%vs Conservative 41.1%-27.1%
ValleyConservative 41.5%vs Labour 27.1%2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 25.3%-33.8%
Worthington & BreedonConservative 45.4%vs Labour 26.2%2023 Conservative 58.2%vs Labour 24.6%-34.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for North West Leicestershire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won North West Leicestershire at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LabAndrew Bridgen30.1%44.6%16.6%2.2% UKIP-6.5%7,51172.9%
2015Con holdAndrew Bridgen27.4%49.5%3.9%16.9% UKIP2.3%-11,37371.4%-1.5
2017Con holdAndrew Bridgen33.4%58.2%6.4%-2.1%-13,28671.0%-0.4
2019notionalConservative winnerAndrew Bridgen 2019 MP, pre-review boundary25.4%62.1%6.8%-4.7%1.0%18,54867.1%-3.9
2024Lab gain from ConAmanda Hack34.7%32.7%3.4%19.9% Ref5.8%3.5%1,01262.5%-4.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like North West Leicestershire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North West Leicestershire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.