Hinckley and Bosworth
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Hinckley and Bosworth constituency
Hinckley and Bosworth is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Luke Evans (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.6% to 24.3% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 5,408 votes on a 62.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.4% and Reform UK on 28.9%, a margin of 3.5 points.
Who lives in Hinckley and Bosworth? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hinckley and Bosworth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hinckley and Bosworth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hinckley and Bosworth within Hinckley and Bosworth and North West Leicestershire
Hinckley and Bosworth crosses council boundaries: Hinckley and Bosworth (95%), North West Leicestershire (5%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Hinckley and Bosworth | 95% |
| North West Leicestershire | 5% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambien | Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 17.2% | 2023 Conservative 66.3%vs Lib Dem 33.6% | - | 31.4% |
| Appleby | Conservative 44.3%vs Reform 18.8% | 2023 Conservative 61.2%vs Labour 26.0% | - | 37.3% |
| Barlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston | Lib Dem 33.9%vs Conservative 27.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 84.0%vs Conservative 16.0% | - | 35.5% |
| Barwell | Conservative 31.2%vs Reform 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 38.5% | - | 26.3% |
| Burbage Sketchley and Stretton | Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 24.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 31.7% |
| Burbage St Catherines and Lash Hill | Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 23.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.9%vs Conservative 43.1% | - | 31.5% |
| Cadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone | Conservative 43.7%vs Lib Dem 20.5% | 2023 Conservative 50.2%vs Lib Dem 39.5% | - | 40.9% |
| Earl Shilton | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 22.1% | 2023 Conservative 38.6%vs Lib Dem 37.4% | - | 28.7% |
| Hinckley Castle | Conservative 28.4%vs Lib Dem 26.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.4%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 27.9% |
| Hinckley Clarendon | Lib Dem 28.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.8%vs Conservative 20.2% | - | 28.3% |
| Hinckley De Montfort | Conservative 37.0%vs Lib Dem 29.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.5%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 36.0% |
| Hinckley Trinity | Conservative 29.8%vs Lib Dem 28.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 69.2%vs Conservative 22.5% | - | 24.7% |
| Newbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton | Conservative 35.7%vs Lib Dem 27.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.0%vs Conservative 38.0% | - | 35.6% |
| Oakthorpe & Donisthorpe | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 20.9% | 2023 Conservative 53.4%vs Labour 35.6% | - | 28.4% |
| Twycross and Witherley with Sheepy | Conservative 47.4%vs Lib Dem 19.4% | 2023 Conservative 61.7%vs Lib Dem 38.3% | - | 39.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hinckley and Bosworth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hinckley and Bosworth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | David Tredinnick Bosworth MP | 16.0% | 42.6% | 33.3% | 5,032 | 70.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | David Tredinnick Bosworth MP | 17.5% | 42.8% | 22.3% | 10,988 | 67.2%-3.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | David Tredinnick Bosworth MP | 24.1% | 56.7% | 17.3% | 18,351 | 68.8%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Luke Evans Bosworth MP, pre-review boundary | 14.2% | 64.6% | 18.2% | 22,851 | 65.0% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Luke Evans | 18.0% | 35.6% | 24.3% | 5,408 | 62.5%-2.5 |
Hinckley and Bosworth was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bosworth (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Hinckley and Bosworth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hinckley and Bosworth. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.8 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 10.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 13.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.8 / 59.5vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 14.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 71.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.8 / 60.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.9 / 13.7vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.6 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave60.8 / 61.7vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 8.8vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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