Sleaford and North Hykeham
East Midlands · County constituency · North Kesteven borough
About the Sleaford and North Hykeham constituency
Sleaford and North Hykeham is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Dr Caroline Johnson (Conservative), first elected in December 2016. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.7% to 26.8% for Labour, a majority of 4,346 votes on a 64.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.5% and the Conservatives on 29.4%, a margin of 3.1 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Sleaford and North Hykeham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sleaford and North Hykeham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sleaford and North Hykeham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sleaford and North Hykeham within North Kesteven
Sleaford and North Hykeham sits entirely within North Kesteven Council. North Kesteven was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Kesteven | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Sleaford Westholme | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 45% Other 27% Con 15% |
| 14 Dec 2023 | Billinghay Rural | LD GAIN from Con | LD 41% Con 30% Other 30% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashby de la Launde, Digby & Scopwick | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Others 50.6%vs Conservative 49.4% | - | - |
| Bassingham Rural | Conservative 46.0%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Conservative 63.5%vs Green 29.2% | - | - |
| Billinghay Rural | Conservative 33.4%vs Labour 26.4% | Sitting Conservative x1 Lib Dem x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Branston | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Others 75.7%vs Conservative 24.3% | - | 32.7% |
| Cranwell, Leasingham & Wilsford | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 26.8% | Sitting Independent x1 Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Heighington & Washingborough | Conservative 39.2%vs Labour 24.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.0%vs Others 43.0% | - | 38.9% |
| Hykeham Central | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Conservative 57.9%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | - | - |
| Hykeham Fosse | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 34.0% | 2023 Conservative 39.5%vs Labour 24.5% | - | - |
| Hykeham Memorial | Conservative 32.6%vs Labour 28.6% | 2023 Independent 49.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | - |
| Kirkby la Thorpe & South Kyme | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Independent 70.2%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 36.1% |
| Metheringham Rural | Conservative 38.4%vs Labour 25.1% | 2023 Conservative 53.4%vs Others 46.6% | - | - |
| Navenby & Brant Broughton | Conservative 33.8%vs Labour 26.0% | Sitting Conservative x1 Others x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Ruskington | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 23.9% | 2023 Conservative 79.7%vs Others 20.3% | - | 27.0% |
| Skellingthorpe & Eagle | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Independent 61.0%vs Conservative 15.1% | - | - |
| Sleaford Castle | Conservative 31.3%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 37.2% | - | 23.8% |
| Sleaford Holdingham | Conservative 32.5%vs Labour 27.9% | 2023 Others 62.6%vs Conservative 25.5% | - | 16.9% |
| Sleaford Navigation | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 27.9% | 2023 Others 64.4%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 27.5% |
| Sleaford Quarrington & Mareham | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Conservative 41.8%vs Others 28.2% | - | 35.4% |
| Sleaford Westholme | Conservative 33.2%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Independent 47.3%vs Others 29.5% | - | 26.8% |
| Waddington Rural | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 53.0%vs Labour 30.2% | - | - |
| Witham St Hughs & Swinderby | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 28.5% | 2023 Others 68.2%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sleaford and North Hykeham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sleaford and North Hykeham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Stephen Phillips | 16.9% | 51.6% | 18.2% | 19,905 | 70.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Stephen Phillips | 17.3% | 56.2% | 5.7% | 24,115 | 70.4%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Caroline Johnson | 25.8% | 64.2% | 4.1% | 25,237 | 72.4%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Caroline Johnson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.6% | 66.5% | 8.2% | 24,680 | 70.2%-2.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Caroline Johnson | 26.8% | 35.7% | 4.7% | 4,346 | 64.2%-6.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sleaford and North Hykeham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sleaford and North Hykeham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.6 / 61.7vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 8.8vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.6 / 60.8vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 10.6vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.6 / 60.2vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 11.7vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.1 / 10.8vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+27.7 / 27.2vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave61.6 / 59.5vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 25.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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