New Forest East
South East · County constituency · New Forest borough
About the New Forest East constituency
New Forest East is a county constituency in the South East, covering most or all of New Forest. The sitting MP is Sir Julian Lewis (Conservative), first elected in May 1997.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won New Forest East with 38.5% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 19.7%, a majority of 8,495 votes. Turnout was 64.0%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Conservatives on 35.5% and Reform UK on 29.0% in New Forest East, a margin of 6.6 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, New Forest East is a strongly Leave-voting area (an estimated 60.2% voted Leave in 2016). About 29.7% of residents hold a degree, 74.1% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 49 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in New Forest East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did New Forest East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of New Forest East
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
New Forest East within New Forest
The Westminster constituency of New Forest East sits entirely within New Forest Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - New Forest District Council was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| New Forest | 100% |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brockenhurst | Con | Con 37% Ref 27% Grn 21% | 48.8% |
| Dibden & Hythe | LD | LD 51% Ref 27% Con 12% | 46.7% |
| Lyndhurst & Fordingbridge | LD | LD 35% Ref 26% Con 24% | 49.6% |
| South Waterside | Ref | Ref 36% Con 27% LD 15% | 41.3% |
| Totton North & Netley Marsh | Con | Con 35% Ref 31% LD 21% | 40.6% |
| Totton South & Marchwood | LD | LD 46% Ref 29% Con 14% | 40.9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for New Forest East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won New Forest East at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 9.8% | 52.8% | 30.3% | 11,307 | 68.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 12.2% | 56.3% | 9.4% | 19,162 | 68.0%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 19.8% | 62.6% | 15.2% | 21,995 | 70.8%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Julian Lewis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.8% | 64.5% | 14.6% | 25,251 | 68.8%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 19.7% | 38.5% | 15.9% | 8,495 | 64.0%-4.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like New Forest East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to New Forest East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.0vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.2 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.