New Forest East
South East · County constituency · New Forest borough
About the New Forest East constituency
New Forest East is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Sir Julian Lewis (Conservative), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.5% to 19.7% for Labour, a majority of 8,495 votes on a 64.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 34.5% and Reform UK on 29.3%, a margin of 5.2 points.
Who lives in New Forest East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did New Forest East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of New Forest East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
New Forest East within New Forest
New Forest East sits entirely within New Forest Council. New Forest was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| New Forest | 100% |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brockenhurst | Con | Con 37% Ref 27% Grn 21% | 48.8% |
| Dibden & Hythe | LD | LD 51% Ref 27% Con 12% | 46.7% |
| Lyndhurst & Fordingbridge | LD | LD 35% Ref 26% Con 24% | 49.6% |
| South Waterside | Ref | Ref 36% Con 27% LD 15% | 41.3% |
| Totton North & Netley Marsh | Con | Con 35% Ref 31% LD 21% | 40.6% |
| Totton South & Marchwood | LD | LD 46% Ref 29% Con 14% | 40.9% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashurst, Bramshaw, Copythorne & Netley Marsh | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 20.5% | 2023 Conservative 45.4%vs Independent 24.8% | - | 42.4% |
| Brockenhurst & Denny Lodge | Conservative 40.8%vs Labour 16.4% | 2023 Green 51.0%vs Conservative 40.1% | - | 43.1% |
| Dibden & Dibden Purlieu | Conservative 34.3%vs Lib Dem 21.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.0%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | 29.2% |
| Fawley, Blackfield, Calshot & Langley | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 19.3% | 2023 Conservative 51.2%vs Lib Dem 33.8% | - | 26.9% |
| Forest & Solent | Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 19.6% | 2023 Conservative 50.4%vs Green 34.5% | - | 36.8% |
| Hardley, Holbury & North Blackfield | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 23.6% | 2023 Conservative 35.6%vs Independent 27.4% | - | 25.1% |
| Hythe Central | Conservative 38.2%vs Lib Dem 20.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.0%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 34.7% |
| Hythe South | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 20.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.4%vs Conservative 28.3% | - | 23.7% |
| Lyndhurst & Minstead | Conservative 40.5%vs Lib Dem 19.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 40.2% | - | 39.2% |
| Marchwood & Eling | Conservative 41.3%vs Lib Dem 17.2% | 2023 Conservative 46.8%vs Lib Dem 41.9% | - | 31.5% |
| Sway | Conservative 46.3%vs Reform 15.1% | 2023 Conservative 55.3%vs Green 36.6% | - | 46.0% |
| Totton Central | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 33.0% | - | 31.7% |
| Totton North | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 22.5% | 2023 Conservative 47.6%vs Lib Dem 26.4% | - | 22.2% |
| Totton South | Conservative 33.7%vs Labour 22.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 36.4% | - | 27.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for New Forest East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won New Forest East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 9.8% | 52.8% | 30.3% | 11,307 | 68.7% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 12.2% | 56.3% | 9.4% | 19,162 | 68.0%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 19.8% | 62.6% | 15.2% | 21,995 | 70.8%+2.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Julian Lewis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 14.8% | 64.5% | 14.6% | 25,251 | 68.8%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Julian Lewis | 19.7% | 38.5% | 15.9% | 8,495 | 64.0%-4.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like New Forest East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to New Forest East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent13.6 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.0vs 30.2
- ↑Leave60.2 / 60.6vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+30.4 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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