Forest of Dean
South West · County constituency
About the Forest of Dean constituency
Forest of Dean is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Matt Bishop (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.0% to 33.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 278 votes on a 66.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.1% and the Conservatives on 26.8%, a margin of 3.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Forest of Dean? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Forest of Dean vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Forest of Dean
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Forest of Dean within Forest of Dean and Tewkesbury
Forest of Dean crosses council boundaries: Forest of Dean (94%), Tewkesbury (6%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Forest of Dean | 94% |
| Tewkesbury | 6% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Cinderford East | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 44% Lab 32% Other 13% |
| 1 May 2025 | Newent and Taynton | Con GAIN from LD | Con 39% LD 31% Grn 24% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berry Hill | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2023 Independent 57.9%vs Green 27.9% | - | 17.5% |
| Bream | Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Green 41.3%vs Independent 29.3% | - | 30.2% |
| Cinderford East | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Labour 65.8%vs Conservative 22.5% | - | 22.9% |
| Cinderford West | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2023 Independent 52.2%vs Labour 29.1% | - | 27.6% |
| Coleford | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Independent 32.3%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 44.9% |
| Dymock | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.5%vs Conservative 37.5% | - | 41.5% |
| Hartpury & Redmarley | Conservative 38.4%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 38.3%vs Green 30.9% | - | 51.8% |
| Highnam with Haw Bridge | Conservative 43.9%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 63.6%vs Green 36.4% | - | 39.8% |
| Longhope & Huntley | Conservative 37.4%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Independent 53.8%vs Conservative 25.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Lydbrook | Labour 43.5%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Green 85.5%vs Conservative 14.5% | - | 32.5% |
| Lydney East | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 39.3%vs Independent 31.2% | - | 34.9% |
| Lydney North | Conservative 44.8%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 76.3%vs Green 23.7% | - | 37.5% |
| Lydney West & Aylburton | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 32.7% | 2023 Green 77.6%vs Conservative 22.4% | - | 34.0% |
| Mitcheldean, Ruardean & Drybrook | Labour 36.5%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Green 36.3%vs Independent 24.9% | - | 52.3% |
| Newent & Taynton | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 24.5% | - | 42.7% |
| Newland & Sling | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 31.6% | 2023 Green 69.4%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 29.7% |
| Newnham | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 33.5% | 2023 Green 61.2%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | 36.7% |
| Pillowell | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Green 77.3%vs Conservative 22.7% | - | 37.0% |
| Ruspidge | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 28.1% | 2023 Independent 50.9%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | - | 24.6% |
| St. Briavels | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Green 74.5%vs Conservative 21.6% | - | 45.6% |
| Tidenham | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 33.4% | 2023 Conservative 36.8%vs Green 35.2% | - | 56.2% |
| Westbury-on-Severn | Conservative 33.4%vs Labour 31.2% | 2023 Independent 87.4%vs Conservative 12.6% | - | 39.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Forest of Dean at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Forest of Dean at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mark Harper | 24.2% | 46.9% | 21.9% | 11,064 | 71.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Harper | 24.6% | 46.8% | 5.3% | 10,987 | 70.9%-0.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Harper | 35.9% | 54.3% | 3.9% | 9,502 | 73.0%+2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Harper 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.8% | 59.6% | 0.0% | 15,869 | 72.0%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Matt Bishop | 34.0% | 33.5% | 5.4% | 278 | 66.0%-6.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Forest of Dean
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Forest of Dean. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent13.4 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 70.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent13.4 / 14.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.4 / 11.0vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 28.8vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.0 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.7 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3524.5 / 22.7vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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