South Suffolk
East of England · County constituency · Babergh borough
About the South Suffolk constituency
South Suffolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is James Cartlidge (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.0% to 26.7% for Labour, a majority of 3,047 votes on a 65.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.1% and the Conservatives on 23.1%, a margin of 15.0 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in South Suffolk? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Suffolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Suffolk
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Suffolk within Babergh
South Suffolk sits entirely within Babergh Council. Babergh was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Babergh | 100% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brook | Ref | Ref 39% Con 19% Grn 19% | — |
| Constable | Con | Con 30% Ref 28% LD 22% | — |
| Cornard & Sudbury East | Ref | Ref 39% Grn 28% Con 15% | — |
| Cosford | Grn | Grn 36% Ref 32% Con 25% | — |
| Hadleigh | Grn | Grn 35% Ref 34% Con 20% | — |
| Melford | Independent | Independent 32% Ref 31% Grn 18% | — |
| Peninsula | Ref | Ref 32% Grn 28% Con 23% | — |
| Stour Valley | Ref | Ref 41% Con 24% Grn 15% | — |
| Sudbury West | Grn | Grn 39% Ref 29% LD 14% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | Copdock & Washbrook | Ref GAIN from LD | Ref 32% LD 29% Grn 24% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assington | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.8%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 40.6% |
| Box Vale | Conservative 28.2%vs Lib Dem 27.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.0%vs Conservative 16.8% | - | 46.2% |
| Brantham | Conservative 29.0%vs Labour 27.1% | 2023 Independent 77.7%vs Green 14.0% | - | 33.9% |
| Brett Vale | Conservative 39.8%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Independent 39.7%vs Conservative 30.6% | - | 43.6% |
| Bures St Mary & Nayland | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 23.5% | 2023 Conservative 39.9%vs Green 34.5% | - | 41.3% |
| Capel St Mary | Conservative 28.1%vs Labour 26.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 79.0%vs Green 21.0% | - | 30.7% |
| Chadacre | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Green 30.6%vs Conservative 26.8% | - | 51.5% |
| Copdock & Washbrook | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.5%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 39.3% |
| East Bergholt | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 25.4% | 2023 Green 52.7%vs Independent 24.4% | - | 46.2% |
| Ganges | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Independent 45.9%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | 34.1% |
| Great Cornard | Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 28.6% | 2023 Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 28.5% | - | 32.0% |
| Hadleigh North | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Green 33.8%vs Conservative 29.3% | - | 30.0% |
| Hadleigh South | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 23.6% | 2023 Green 43.3%vs Independent 21.1% | - | 42.3% |
| Lavenham | Conservative 42.8%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Conservative 53.2%vs Green 18.0% | - | 51.2% |
| Long Melford | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 26.8% | 2023 Independent 57.1%vs Green 16.7% | - | 32.1% |
| North West Cosford | Labour 35.3%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Green 83.1%vs Lib Dem 16.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Orwell | Conservative 29.9%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Green 63.4%vs Lib Dem 23.8% | - | 37.7% |
| South East Cosford | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Green 88.9%vs Lib Dem 11.1% | - | 42.4% |
| Sproughton & Pinewood | Conservative 30.1%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Green 26.0%vs Lib Dem 25.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Stour | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Independent 46.0%vs Green 22.2% | - | 40.1% |
| Sudbury North East | Labour 33.1%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Labour 37.7%vs Independent 27.6% | - | 23.2% |
| Sudbury North West | Conservative 29.3%vs Labour 27.9% | 2023 Green 52.8%vs Labour 21.2% | - | 41.8% |
| Sudbury South East | Labour 31.5%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Independent 28.3%vs Labour 26.0% | - | 34.6% |
| Sudbury South West | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Green 50.1%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | 37.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Suffolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Suffolk at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Tim Yeo | 14.3% | 47.7% | 30.8% | 8,689 | 70.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | James Cartlidge | 19.3% | 53.1% | 7.8% | 17,545 | 70.3%-0.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | James Cartlidge | 27.8% | 60.5% | 5.8% | 17,749 | 71.8%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Cartlidge 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 19.2% | 62.1% | 12.7% | 21,473 | 70.5%-1.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | James Cartlidge | 26.7% | 33.0% | 13.2% | 3,047 | 65.4%-5.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Suffolk
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Suffolk. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 32.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 22.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 69.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 30.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 23.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.0 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.7 / 24.5vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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