Constituency profile

Broadland and Fakenham

East of England · County constituency

Jerome Mayhew MP
Sitting MP

Jerome Mayhew

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
54.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +2.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +4.5pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernBrexit-marginalWorking-class profile

About the Broadland and Fakenham constituency

Broadland and Fakenham is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Jerome Mayhew (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.0% to 31.5% for Labour, a majority of 719 votes on a 64.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.7% and the Conservatives on 26.2%, a margin of 4.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Broadland and Fakenham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
54.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
27.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
74.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
25.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
49.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Broadland and Fakenham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 719 votes (1.5pp) · turnout 64.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Broadland and Fakenham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Broadland and Fakenham within Broadland and North Norfolk

Broadland and Fakenham crosses council boundaries: Broadland (85%), North Norfolk (15%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Broadland
50 LSOAs
85%
North Norfolk
9 LSOAs
15%

Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
AcleRefRef 39% Grn 28% Con 16%50.2%
AylshamLDLD 45% Ref 28% Con 15%50.2%
Blofield & BrundallGrnGrn 36% Ref 29% Con 22%52.9%
Coltishall & SpixworthLDLD 44% Ref 32% Con 14%49.7%
Fakenham & The RaynhamsRefRef 38% Con 30% Grn 14%40.6%
ReephamLDLD 32% Ref 32% Con 22%49.7%
TaverhamConCon 40% Ref 28% LD 19%51.7%
WroxhamRefRef 34% Con 33% Grn 17%47.4%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
15 May 2025Acle
Broadland
Ref GAIN from ConRef 33% Lab 21% Grn 21%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AcleLabour 37.9%vs Conservative 31.1%2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 42.4%-36.2%
AylshamConservative 29.6%vs Labour 28.8%2023 Lib Dem 58.0%vs Conservative 24.2%-43.8%
Blofield with South WalshamConservative 36.1%vs Labour 33.6%2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 20.3%-38.1%
BrundallLabour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.2%2023 Green 61.1%vs Conservative 23.7%-42.1%
BurlinghamLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 31.3%2023 Green 42.8%vs Conservative 32.4%-38.5%
BuxtonConservative 32.3%vs Labour 26.1%2023 Lib Dem 60.0%vs Conservative 28.1%-35.7%
ColtishallConservative 37.8%vs Labour 34.7%2023 Conservative 53.6%vs Labour 30.4%-36.5%
EynesfordConservative 32.3%vs Labour 30.5%2023 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 36.6%-37.8%
Great WitchinghamLabour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.4%2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Lib Dem 25.1%-33.3%
HevinghamConservative 36.3%vs Labour 25.5%2023 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 35.6%-33.1%
Horsford and FelthorpeConservative 28.2%vs Labour 26.4%2023 Lib Dem 67.7%vs Conservative 23.4%-30.1%
Lancaster NorthLabour 33.4%vs Conservative 31.4%2023 Conservative 49.0%vs Independent 24.8%-30.4%
Lancaster SouthLabour 31.8%vs Conservative 30.1%2023 Conservative 36.6%vs Independent 34.8%-33.9%
MarshesLabour 35.8%vs Conservative 32.6%2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 30.9%-36.1%
PlumsteadLabour 36.2%vs Conservative 29.9%2023 Green 46.9%vs Conservative 39.6%-37.9%
ReephamConservative 32.4%vs Labour 28.1%2023 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Conservative 27.4%-40.1%
Spixworth with St FaithsConservative 31.9%vs Labour 28.5%2023 Lib Dem 66.4%vs Conservative 19.5%-33.0%
StibbardLabour 33.8%vs Conservative 32.0%2023 Lib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 35.9%-43.5%
Taverham NorthLabour 31.7%vs Conservative 27.7%2023 Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 36.0%-28.4%
Taverham SouthConservative 37.8%vs Labour 29.8%2023 Conservative 57.7%vs Labour 17.7%-38.0%
The RaynhamsLabour 35.1%vs Conservative 29.5%2023 Independent 48.5%vs Conservative 23.7%-28.7%
WalsinghamConservative 34.1%vs Labour 31.4%2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Lib Dem 24.3%-34.9%
WroxhamConservative 45.2%vs Labour 29.0%2023 Conservative 52.0%vs Labour 17.6%-31.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Broadland and Fakenham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Broadland and Fakenham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdKeith Simpson Broadland MP13.8%46.2%32.4%4.5% UKIP1.4%1.7%7,29272.7%
2015predecessorCon holdKeith Simpson Broadland MP18.8%50.5%9.8%16.7% UKIP4.2%-16,83872.2%-0.5
2017predecessorCon holdKeith Simpson Broadland MP29.6%57.9%7.9%2.8% UKIP1.7%-15,81672.4%+0.2
2019notionalConservative winnerJerome Mayhew Broadland MP, pre-review boundary21.6%59.1%16.1%-2.5%0.7%19,82572.4%
2024Con holdJerome Mayhew31.5%33.0%11.2%17.9% Ref6.5%-71964.4%-8.0

Broadland and Fakenham was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Broadland (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Broadland and Fakenham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Broadland and Fakenham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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