Broadland and Fakenham
East of England · County constituency
About the Broadland and Fakenham constituency
Broadland and Fakenham is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Jerome Mayhew (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.0% to 31.5% for Labour, a majority of 719 votes on a 64.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 30.7% and the Conservatives on 26.2%, a margin of 4.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Broadland and Fakenham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Broadland and Fakenham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Broadland and Fakenham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Broadland and Fakenham within Broadland and North Norfolk
Broadland and Fakenham crosses council boundaries: Broadland (85%), North Norfolk (15%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Broadland | 85% |
| North Norfolk | 15% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acle | Ref | Ref 39% Grn 28% Con 16% | 50.2% |
| Aylsham | LD | LD 45% Ref 28% Con 15% | 50.2% |
| Blofield & Brundall | Grn | Grn 36% Ref 29% Con 22% | 52.9% |
| Coltishall & Spixworth | LD | LD 44% Ref 32% Con 14% | 49.7% |
| Fakenham & The Raynhams | Ref | Ref 38% Con 30% Grn 14% | 40.6% |
| Reepham | LD | LD 32% Ref 32% Con 22% | 49.7% |
| Taverham | Con | Con 40% Ref 28% LD 19% | 51.7% |
| Wroxham | Ref | Ref 34% Con 33% Grn 17% | 47.4% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2025 | Acle | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 33% Lab 21% Grn 21% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acle | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 42.4% | - | 36.2% |
| Aylsham | Conservative 29.6%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.0%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 43.8% |
| Blofield with South Walsham | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 20.3% | - | 38.1% |
| Brundall | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Green 61.1%vs Conservative 23.7% | - | 42.1% |
| Burlingham | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Green 42.8%vs Conservative 32.4% | - | 38.5% |
| Buxton | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 60.0%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | 35.7% |
| Coltishall | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 34.7% | 2023 Conservative 53.6%vs Labour 30.4% | - | 36.5% |
| Eynesford | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 30.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 36.6% | - | 37.8% |
| Great Witchingham | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Lib Dem 25.1% | - | 33.3% |
| Hevingham | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 33.1% |
| Horsford and Felthorpe | Conservative 28.2%vs Labour 26.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.7%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 30.1% |
| Lancaster North | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 49.0%vs Independent 24.8% | - | 30.4% |
| Lancaster South | Labour 31.8%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 36.6%vs Independent 34.8% | - | 33.9% |
| Marshes | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Labour 30.9% | - | 36.1% |
| Plumstead | Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Green 46.9%vs Conservative 39.6% | - | 37.9% |
| Reepham | Conservative 32.4%vs Labour 28.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Conservative 27.4% | - | 40.1% |
| Spixworth with St Faiths | Conservative 31.9%vs Labour 28.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.4%vs Conservative 19.5% | - | 33.0% |
| Stibbard | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Lib Dem 41.3%vs Conservative 35.9% | - | 43.5% |
| Taverham North | Labour 31.7%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 47.2%vs Conservative 36.0% | - | 28.4% |
| Taverham South | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 57.7%vs Labour 17.7% | - | 38.0% |
| The Raynhams | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Independent 48.5%vs Conservative 23.7% | - | 28.7% |
| Walsingham | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 60.2%vs Lib Dem 24.3% | - | 34.9% |
| Wroxham | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Conservative 52.0%vs Labour 17.6% | - | 31.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Broadland and Fakenham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Broadland and Fakenham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Keith Simpson Broadland MP | 13.8% | 46.2% | 32.4% | 7,292 | 72.7% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Keith Simpson Broadland MP | 18.8% | 50.5% | 9.8% | 16,838 | 72.2%-0.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Keith Simpson Broadland MP | 29.6% | 57.9% | 7.9% | 15,816 | 72.4%+0.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jerome Mayhew Broadland MP, pre-review boundary | 21.6% | 59.1% | 16.1% | 19,825 | 72.4% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Jerome Mayhew | 31.5% | 33.0% | 11.2% | 719 | 64.4%-8.0 |
Broadland and Fakenham was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Broadland (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Broadland and Fakenham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Broadland and Fakenham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 29.2vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 72.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 20.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 73.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 29.7vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent14.0 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied74.1 / 75.6vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.3 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.3 / 22.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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