Waveney Valley
East of England · County constituency
About the Waveney Valley constituency
Waveney Valley is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Adrian Ramsay (Green Party), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Greens won with 41.7% to 30.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,594 votes on a 67.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 43.3% and Reform UK on 28.8%, a margin of 14.5 points.
Who lives in Waveney Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Waveney Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Waveney Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Waveney Valley within South Norfolk and Mid Suffolk and 1 other council
Waveney Valley crosses council boundaries: South Norfolk (44%), Mid Suffolk (38%), East Suffolk (18%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council elections were held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Norfolk | 44% |
| Mid Suffolk | 38% |
| East Suffolk | 18% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diss & Roydon | Grn | Grn 34% Ref 32% Con 26% | 42.9% |
| East Depwade | Ref | Ref 29% Grn 26% Independent 21% | 48.6% |
| West Depwade | Ref | Ref 34% Con 29% Grn 27% | 55.6% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bungay | Grn | Grn 44% Ref 31% Con 16% | 50.9% |
| Hartismere | Ref | Ref 35% Grn 34% Con 23% | — |
| Hoxne & Eye | Grn | Grn 34% Ref 31% Con 27% | — |
| Upper Gipping | Grn | Grn 58% Ref 28% Con 12% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2025 | Haughley Stowupland & Wetherden | Grn HOLD | Con 64% Grn 32% |
| 9 May 2024 | Bunwell | Grn GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bacton | Green 45.9%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2023 Green 75.5%vs Conservative 21.0% | - | 42.6% |
| Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole | Green 39.0%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 32.2%vs Independent 26.2% | - | 49.7% |
| Bressingham & Burston | Conservative 40.7%vs Green 33.4% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Lib Dem 16.6% | - | 36.0% |
| Bungay & Wainford | Green 47.3%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Green 58.8%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 43.0% |
| Bunwell | Green 38.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | 2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 22.6% | - | 35.0% |
| Diss & Roydon | Green 42.2%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Conservative 44.0%vs Lib Dem 23.0% | - | 28.1% |
| Ditchingham & Earsham | Green 39.5%vs Conservative 32.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.1%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 37.2% |
| Eye | Green 40.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Green 70.2%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 43.9% |
| Fressingfield | Conservative 35.6%vs Green 34.4% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Green 48.5% | - | 44.3% |
| Gislingham | Green 46.0%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Green 71.5%vs Conservative 28.5% | - | 42.2% |
| Halesworth & Blything | Green 47.9%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Green 67.8%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 41.7% |
| Harleston | Green 40.1%vs Conservative 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 40.0%vs Green 23.0% | - | 41.0% |
| Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden | Green 45.4%vs Conservative 23.2% | 2023 Green 86.0%vs Conservative 14.0% | - | 37.6% |
| Hoxne & Worlingworth | Conservative 38.8%vs Green 36.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Green 29.1% | - | 42.2% |
| Mendlesham | Green 45.5%vs Conservative 25.0% | 2023 Green 79.2%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | 41.6% |
| Palgrave | Green 37.0%vs Conservative 35.3% | 2023 Green 51.9%vs Conservative 43.0% | - | 43.8% |
| Rickinghall | Green 38.4%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.1%vs Labour 45.9% | - | 35.9% |
| Stradbroke & Laxfield | Green 37.0%vs Conservative 34.8% | 2023 Conservative 46.9%vs Green 27.9% | - | 37.0% |
| Walsham-le-Willows | Green 40.3%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Green 68.5%vs Conservative 31.5% | - | 42.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Waveney Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Waveney Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Daniel Poulter Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP | 16.2% | 50.8% | 25.0% | 13,786 | 70.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Daniel Poulter Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP | 18.8% | 56.1% | 6.1% | 20,144 | 70.6%+0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Dan Poulter Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP | 29.7% | 60.1% | 4.3% | 17,185 | 72.4%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Dan Poulter Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP, pre-review boundary | 18.6% | 62.2% | 9.2% | 22,364 | 72.7% |
| 2024 | Green gain from Con | Adrian Ramsay | 9.4% | 30.3% | 2.5% | 5,594 | 67.2%-5.5 |
Waveney Valley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Central Suffolk and North Ipswich (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Waveney Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Waveney Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.4 / 22.7vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 34.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.4 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 74.1vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.3vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.4 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 32.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.4 / 20.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 70.0vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied72.1 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+33.9 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.4 / 22.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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