Constituency profile

South East Cornwall

South West · County constituency · Cornwall borough

Anna Gelderd MP
Sitting MP

Anna Gelderd

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Cornwall council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
55.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +3.2pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +13.5pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
SouthernLeave-leaning

About the South East Cornwall constituency

South East Cornwall is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Anna Gelderd (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.8% to 27.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,911 votes on a 67.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.3% and the Conservatives on 21.8%, a margin of 13.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in South East Cornwall? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
55.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
30.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
70.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
28.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
51.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
32.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
20.8%
UK average ~28%

How did South East Cornwall vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 1,911 votes (3.9pp) · turnout 67.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of South East Cornwall

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

South East Cornwall within Cornwall

South East Cornwall sits entirely within Cornwall Council. Cornwall was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Cornwall
56 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
7 Apr 2024Looe West Pelynt Lansallos & Lanteglos
Cornwall
LD HOLD—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Callington & St DominicConservative 27.6%vs Labour 25.6%2021 Others 49.5%vs Conservative 40.6%--
CalstockLabour 46.1%vs Conservative 21.5%2021 Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 28.1%--
Liskeard CentralLabour 35.5%vs Conservative 27.3%2021 Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 25.8%--
Liskeard South & DobwallsConservative 33.0%vs Labour 27.0%2021 Conservative 60.6%vs Lib Dem 22.6%--
Looe East & DeviockLabour 29.3%vs Conservative 24.8%2021 Independent 72.0%vs Lib Dem 12.6%--
Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos & LanteglosLib Dem 25.3%vs Conservative 25.2%2021 Lib Dem 61.4%vs Conservative 30.3%--
Lostwithiel & LanreathConservative 35.5%vs Labour 25.9%2021 Lib Dem 42.1%vs Conservative 40.5%--
LynherConservative 30.7%vs Labour 24.1%2021 Conservative 46.4%vs Lib Dem 32.2%-57.0%
Rame Peninsula & St GermansLabour 49.0%vs Conservative 23.7%2021 Labour 42.0%vs Conservative 39.8%--
Saltash EssaLabour 26.8%vs Conservative 25.2%2021 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Independent 26.9%--
Saltash TamarLabour 28.9%vs Conservative 27.4%2021 Conservative 38.6%vs Independent 34.1%--
Saltash Trematon & LandrakeConservative 33.7%vs Labour 23.0%2021 Conservative 46.3%vs Lib Dem 31.1%--
St Cleer & MenheniotLabour 33.1%vs Conservative 27.8%2021 Conservative 35.8%vs Lib Dem 22.1%--
TorpointConservative 30.4%vs Labour 30.1%2021 Conservative 53.0%vs Lib Dem 26.4%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for South East Cornwall at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won South East Cornwall at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LDSheryll Murray7.1%45.1%38.6%6.2% UKIP1.7%1.3%3,22069.5%
2015Con holdSheryll Murray9.3%50.5%16.9%15.2% UKIP5.4%2.7%16,99571.1%+1.6
2017Con holdSheryll Murray22.6%55.4%19.4%-2.5%-17,44374.0%+2.9
2019notionalConservative winnerSheryll Murray 2019 MP, pre-review boundary20.3%59.0%16.3%-2.7%1.7%20,22572.8%-1.2
2024Lab gain from ConAnna Gelderd31.8%27.9%16.8%18.9% Ref4.1%0.5%1,91167.8%-5.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like South East Cornwall

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South East Cornwall. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.