Constituency profile

Torridge and Tavistock

South West · County constituency

Sir Geoffrey Cox MP
Sitting MP

Sir Geoffrey Cox

Conservative

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
54.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +2.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +5.4pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the Torridge and Tavistock constituency

Torridge and Tavistock is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sir Geoffrey Cox (Conservative), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 31.6% to 23.8% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 3,950 votes on a 68.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.7% and the Conservatives on 26.3%, a margin of 5.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Torridge and Tavistock? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
54.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
28.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
70.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
28.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
51.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
33.5%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
21.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Torridge and Tavistock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,950 votes (7.8pp) · turnout 68.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Torridge and Tavistock

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Torridge and Tavistock within Torridge and West Devon

Torridge and Tavistock crosses council boundaries: Torridge (72%), West Devon (28%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Torridge
38 LSOAs
72%
West Devon
15 LSOAs
28%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
4 Dec 2025Winkleigh
Torridge
LD GAIN from ConLD 42% Ref 33% Con 25%
23 Oct 2025Milton & Tamarside
Torridge
LD GAIN from IndLD 38% Ref 31% Con 17%
1 May 2025Tavistock North
West Devon
LD GAIN from IndLD 31% Con 26% Ref 23%
20 Apr 2025Appledore
Torridge
LD GAIN from Ind
9 May 2024Bideford North
Torridge
LD GAIN from Grn

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AppledoreConservative 30.6%vs Labour 27.2%2023 Independent 45.3%vs Green 44.5%-45.2%
Bere FerrersConservative 36.7%vs Lib Dem 22.9%2023 Conservative 44.6%vs Labour 36.3%-56.6%
Bideford EastConservative 28.5%vs Labour 25.4%2023 Independent 44.3%vs Conservative 28.8%-35.9%
Bideford NorthConservative 30.2%vs Lib Dem 25.4%2023 Green 30.5%vs Lib Dem 18.1%-64.7%
Bideford SouthConservative 29.9%vs Labour 24.7%2023 Labour 37.9%vs Independent 30.7%-28.1%
Bideford WestConservative 29.0%vs Labour 22.3%2023 Independent 55.5%vs Conservative 24.9%-22.9%
BridestoweConservative 37.3%vs Lib Dem 22.0%2023 Conservative 70.8%vs Green 29.2%-35.2%
BroadheathConservative 31.3%vs Lib Dem 22.9%2023 Conservative 46.4%vs Independent 30.6%-42.6%
DartmoorConservative 28.6%vs Labour 23.6%2023 Independent 74.3%vs Lib Dem 25.7%-38.3%
Great TorringtonLib Dem 34.3%vs Conservative 26.2%2023 Lib Dem 58.4%vs Conservative 16.4%-43.4%
HartlandConservative 32.6%vs Lib Dem 25.2%2023 Conservative 38.1%vs Independent 37.7%-45.4%
HolsworthyConservative 29.7%vs Lib Dem 24.6%2023 Lib Dem 50.9%vs Independent 29.4%-47.9%
Mary TavyConservative 32.7%vs Lib Dem 21.9%2023 Independent 61.0%vs Conservative 21.9%-44.1%
Milton & TamarsideConservative 29.2%vs Lib Dem 24.7%2023 Independent 66.4%vs Green 21.0%-37.2%
Milton FordConservative 36.5%vs Lib Dem 20.8%2019 Conservative 66.9%vs Labour 33.1%-35.2%
Monkleigh & PutfordConservative 29.8%vs Lib Dem 23.5%2023 Independent 47.4%vs Conservative 23.9%-49.4%
NorthamConservative 33.4%vs Labour 21.7%2023 Independent 48.5%vs Conservative 24.1%-53.3%
Shebbear & LangtreeConservative 33.3%vs Lib Dem 29.7%2023 Lib Dem 64.2%vs Conservative 35.8%-46.3%
TamarsideConservative 46.5%vs Lib Dem 18.1%2023 Conservative 64.0%vs Green 28.8%-34.0%
Tavistock NorthConservative 27.4%vs Lib Dem 24.9%2023 Independent 36.2%vs Conservative 27.7%-63.4%
Tavistock South EastConservative 34.2%vs Labour 21.1%2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Independent 33.5%-62.8%
Tavistock South WestLabour 24.3%vs Conservative 24.2%2023 Independent 82.0%vs Conservative 18.0%-27.7%
Two Rivers & Three MoorsConservative 36.8%vs Lib Dem 23.4%2023 Conservative 49.4%vs Lib Dem 40.9%-39.5%
Westward Ho!Conservative 27.1%vs Labour 24.0%Sitting Independent x2no contested ballot--
WinkleighConservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 25.7%2023 Conservative 48.6%vs Lib Dem 33.6%-40.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Torridge and Tavistock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Torridge and Tavistock at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon holdGeoffrey Cox Torridge and West Devon MP5.3%45.7%40.3%5.5% UKIP1.9%1.4%2,95771.4%
2015predecessorCon holdGeoffrey Cox Torridge and West Devon MP10.6%50.9%13.2%18.3% UKIP7.0%-18,40372.0%+0.6
2017predecessorCon holdGeoffrey Cox Torridge and West Devon MP21.7%56.5%17.7%-2.7%1.3%20,68673.9%+1.9
2019notionalConservative winnerGeoffrey Cox Torridge and West Devon MP, pre-review boundary17.9%59.8%17.9%-3.4%1.0%22,89973.1%
2024Con holdGeoffrey Cox21.2%31.6%23.8%18.0% Ref4.6%0.8%3,95068.0%-5.1

Torridge and Tavistock was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Torridge and West Devon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Torridge and Tavistock

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Torridge and Tavistock. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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