Morecambe and Lunesdale
North West · County constituency
About the Morecambe and Lunesdale constituency
Morecambe and Lunesdale is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Lizzi Collinge (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.8% to 28.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,815 votes on a 62.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.8% and Reform UK on 27.2%, a margin of 5.5 points.
Who lives in Morecambe and Lunesdale? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Morecambe and Lunesdale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Morecambe and Lunesdale
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Morecambe and Lunesdale within Lancaster and Westmorland and Furness
Morecambe and Lunesdale crosses council boundaries: Lancaster (84%), Westmorland and Furness (16%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Lancaster | 84% |
| Westmorland and Furness | 16% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2024 | Carnforth & Millhead | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bare | Labour 40.2%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 25.8%vs Others 24.3% | - | 41.2% |
| Bolton & Slyne | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Labour 20.2% | - | 40.3% |
| Burton and Holme | Conservative 43.8%vs Labour 27.1% | 2022 Lib Dem 60.7%vs Conservative 35.4% | - | 53.0% |
| Carnforth & Millhead | Labour 45.0%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 41.7% | - | 27.8% |
| Halton-with-Aughton & Kellet | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Green 48.0%vs Conservative 36.8% | - | 44.9% |
| Heysham Central | Labour 48.1%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Labour 42.0%vs Others 37.7% | - | 31.3% |
| Heysham North | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 20.8% | 2023 Labour 37.3%vs Others 24.1% | - | 25.5% |
| Heysham South | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2023 Labour 52.1%vs Others 23.1% | - | 32.1% |
| Kent Estuary | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 69.1%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | 52.0% |
| Levens and Crooklands | Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 23.9% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | - | 55.0% |
| Lower Lune Valley | Conservative 35.3%vs Labour 32.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.7%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 43.9% |
| Overton | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 31.2% | - | 30.9% |
| Poulton | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.9%vs Labour 26.1% | - | 24.5% |
| Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale | Conservative 35.5%vs Lib Dem 25.8% | 2022 Lib Dem 64.0%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 52.0% |
| Silverdale | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.5%vs Conservative 35.8% | - | 54.4% |
| Torrisholme | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2023 Others 40.5%vs Conservative 15.9% | - | 38.1% |
| Upper Lune Valley | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 33.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.3%vs Conservative 31.6% | - | 45.0% |
| Warton | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Green 52.7%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 39.2% |
| West End | Labour 53.0%vs Reform 17.7% | 2023 Labour 44.5%vs Lib Dem 33.5% | - | 23.2% |
| Westgate | Labour 47.1%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2023 Labour 38.4%vs Others 33.8% | - | 22.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Morecambe and Lunesdale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Morecambe and Lunesdale at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | David Morris | 39.5% | 41.5% | 13.3% | 866 | 62.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | David Morris | 34.9% | 45.5% | 3.7% | 4,590 | 64.6%+2.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | David Morris | 44.6% | 47.7% | 3.7% | 1,399 | 68.3%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Morris 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 28.1% | 53.6% | 15.6% | 14,188 | 73.2%+4.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Lizzi Collinge | 40.8% | 28.7% | 9.9% | 5,815 | 62.9%-10.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Morecambe and Lunesdale
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Morecambe and Lunesdale. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.2 / 7.8vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+31.6 / 32.5vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+31.6 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.6 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+31.6 / 31.2vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3522.9 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 72.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+31.6 / 32.0vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent7.2 / 8.8vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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