Herne Bay and Sandwich
South East · County constituency
About the Herne Bay and Sandwich constituency
Herne Bay and Sandwich is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Sir Roger Gale (Conservative), first elected in June 1983. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.3% to 30.2% for Labour, a majority of 2,499 votes on a 62.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.7% and the Conservatives on 27.0%, a margin of 7.7 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Herne Bay and Sandwich? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Herne Bay and Sandwich vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Herne Bay and Sandwich
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Herne Bay and Sandwich within Canterbury and Thanet and 1 other council
Herne Bay and Sandwich crosses council boundaries: Canterbury (51%), Thanet (37%), Dover (12%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Canterbury | 51% |
| Thanet | 37% |
| Dover | 12% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2025 | Garlinge | Ref GAIN from Local | Ref 45% Con 32% Lab 8% |
| 1 May 2025 | Thanet Villages | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 38% Con 21% Other 20% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Herne & Broomfield | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beltinge | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Labour 23.2% | - | 34.1% |
| Birchington North | Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 50.6%vs Others 21.8% | - | 61.9% |
| Birchington South | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 56.3%vs Labour 23.7% | - | 38.7% |
| Garlinge | Labour 30.0%vs Conservative 29.1% | 2023 Others 57.7%vs Labour 23.2% | - | 33.1% |
| Greenhill | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 32.1% | 2023 Conservative 46.7%vs Labour 38.9% | - | 27.3% |
| Herne & Broomfield | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 42.7%vs Labour 23.4% | - | 30.4% |
| Heron | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 38.2% | - | 34.5% |
| Little Stour & Ashstone | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Labour 20.8% | - | 35.8% |
| Reculver | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 30.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.1%vs Labour 29.5% | - | 34.0% |
| Sandwich | Conservative 39.1%vs Labour 26.7% | 2023 Conservative 42.6%vs Independent 26.4% | - | 48.4% |
| Sturry | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Labour 35.9%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 35.0% |
| Thanet Villages | Conservative 38.4%vs Labour 25.0% | 2023 Conservative 41.9%vs Green 36.4% | - | 33.9% |
| West Bay | Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 28.8% | 2023 Green 56.0%vs Conservative 31.7% | - | 33.7% |
| Westbrook | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2023 Labour 43.6%vs Conservative 34.7% | - | 40.3% |
| Westgate-on-Sea | Labour 32.8%vs Conservative 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 28.6% | - | 49.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Herne Bay and Sandwich at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Herne Bay and Sandwich at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Roger Gale North Thanet MP | 21.5% | 52.7% | 19.4% | 13,528 | 63.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Roger Gale North Thanet MP | 17.9% | 49.0% | 3.5% | 10,948 | 65.8%+2.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Roger Gale North Thanet MP | 34.0% | 56.2% | 3.3% | 10,738 | 66.5%+0.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Roger Gale North Thanet MP, pre-review boundary | 24.4% | 64.4% | 7.5% | 20,372 | 67.0% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Roger Gale | 30.2% | 35.3% | 5.5% | 2,499 | 62.7%-4.3 |
Herne Bay and Sandwich was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North Thanet (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Herne Bay and Sandwich
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Herne Bay and Sandwich. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+32.0 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 72.8vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.0 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 7.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 70.8vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.0 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 24.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 72.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 9.9vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate26.9 / 27.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.0 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.0 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent8.8 / 9.7vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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