Constituency profile

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

North West · Borough constituency

Lorraine Beavers MP
Sitting MP

Lorraine Beavers

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
57.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +5.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +0.8pp
vs Reform UK 34.9%
NorthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Blackpool North and Fleetwood constituency

Blackpool North and Fleetwood is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Lorraine Beavers (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.0% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,647 votes on a 57.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.6% and Reform UK on 34.9%, a margin of 0.8 points.

Who lives in Blackpool North and Fleetwood? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
57.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
69.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
48.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
31.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
23.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Blackpool North and Fleetwood vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 4,647 votes (11.1pp) · turnout 57.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Blackpool North and Fleetwood

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Blackpool North and Fleetwood within Wyre and Blackpool

Blackpool North and Fleetwood crosses council boundaries: Wyre (68%), Blackpool (32%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Wyre
42 LSOAs
68%
Blackpool
20 LSOAs
32%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
18 Dec 2025Greenlands
Blackpool
Ref GAIN from LabRef 44% Con 23% Lab 22%
1 May 2025Park
Wyre
Ref GAIN from LabRef 58% Lab 25% Con 17%
9 Nov 2024Bispham
Blackpool
Lab GAIN from Con
9 Nov 2024Marsh Mill
Wyre
Ref GAIN from Con

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AnchorsholmeLabour 35.5%vs Conservative 35.5%2023 Conservative 64.2%vs Labour 35.8%-30.9%
BisphamLabour 40.0%vs Conservative 31.0%2023 Conservative 51.9%vs Labour 48.1%-29.6%
BourneLabour 41.2%vs Reform 25.6%2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 44.5%-24.0%
CarletonLabour 42.1%vs Conservative 29.4%2023 Labour 53.3%vs Conservative 43.0%-40.5%
Cleveleys ParkLabour 38.5%vs Conservative 31.4%2023 Conservative 52.8%vs Labour 40.2%-39.4%
GreenlandsLabour 43.7%vs Conservative 27.1%2023 Labour 48.5%vs Conservative 43.0%-33.0%
IngthorpeLabour 43.1%vs Conservative 26.5%2023 Labour 56.4%vs Conservative 43.6%-26.2%
JubileeLabour 41.8%vs Conservative 27.0%2023 Labour 52.8%vs Conservative 47.2%-31.3%
Marsh MillLabour 37.0%vs Conservative 31.3%2023 Conservative 58.2%vs Labour 41.8%-32.4%
MountLabour 42.7%vs Reform 25.5%2023 Labour 66.0%vs Conservative 34.0%-21.6%
NorbreckLabour 34.9%vs Conservative 34.3%2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Independent 32.3%-34.3%
ParkLabour 44.3%vs Reform 25.4%2023 Labour 67.3%vs Conservative 32.6%-23.2%
PharosLabour 46.9%vs Reform 24.1%2023 Labour 63.0%vs Conservative 28.7%-22.2%
Pheasant's WoodLabour 35.6%vs Conservative 34.3%2023 Conservative 66.7%vs Labour 33.3%-37.7%
RossallLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 45.7%-29.6%
StanahLabour 36.5%vs Conservative 32.9%2023 Conservative 72.5%vs Labour 27.5%-34.3%
Victoria & NorcrossLabour 37.4%vs Conservative 30.9%2023 Conservative 57.8%vs Labour 42.2%-33.0%
WarrenLabour 40.2%vs Conservative 26.6%2023 Labour 63.1%vs Conservative 36.9%-26.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Blackpool North and Fleetwood at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Blackpool North and Fleetwood at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabPaul Maynard Blackpool North and Cleveleys MP36.5%41.8%13.3%4.1% UKIP-4.3%2,15061.5%
2015predecessorCon holdPaul Maynard Blackpool North and Cleveleys MP36.0%44.4%2.4%14.8% UKIP2.3%0.1%3,34063.1%+1.6
2017predecessorCon holdPaul Maynard Blackpool North and Cleveleys MP44.5%49.4%1.8%3.4% UKIP0.9%-2,02364.1%+1.0
2019notionalConservative winnerPaul Maynard Blackpool North and Cleveleys MP, pre-review boundary35.6%55.8%4.0%-1.9%2.7%10,11966.4%
2024Lab gain from ConLorraine Beavers40.0%28.9%3.2%23.7% Ref3.0%1.1%4,64757.0%-9.4

Blackpool North and Fleetwood was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Blackpool North and Cleveleys (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Blackpool North and Fleetwood

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blackpool North and Fleetwood. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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