Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
South East · Borough constituency · Arun borough
About the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton constituency
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton is a borough constituency in the South East, covering most or all of Arun. The sitting MP is Alison Griffiths (Conservative), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won Bognor Regis and Littlehampton with 32.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 29.1%, a majority of 1,765 votes. Turnout was 62.2%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 34.9% and the Conservatives on 25.5% in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, a margin of 9.4 points, a projected change from the Conservatives since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton is a strongly Leave-voting area (an estimated 64.8% voted Leave in 2016). About 24.9% of residents hold a degree, 67.4% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 48 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Conservatives each time.
Who lives in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bognor Regis and Littlehampton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton within Arun
The Westminster constituency of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton sits entirely within Arun Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - Arun District Council was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the West Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. The most recent district ward results are shown after them.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Arun | 100% |
West Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bersted | Ref | Ref 46% LD 26% Con 13% | 38.2% |
| Bognor Regis East | Ref | Ref 40% LD 28% Grn 11% | 33.0% |
| Bognor Regis West & Aldwick | Ref | Ref 37% Con 26% LD 21% | 43.0% |
| Felpham | Ref | Ref 37% Independent 37% Con 18% | 45.3% |
| Littlehampton East | Ref | Ref 34% LD 31% Con 17% | 42.8% |
| Littlehampton Town | Ref | Ref 34% Lab 20% Con 17% | 39.1% |
| Middleton | Ref | Ref 37% Con 30% LD 18% | 44.1% |
| Nyetimber | Ref | Ref 46% LD 24% Con 19% | 49.3% |
| Rustington | Con | Con 43% Ref 28% LD 11% | 52.8% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2025 | Marine | Ref GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bognor Regis and Littlehampton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bognor Regis and Littlehampton at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nick Gibb | 14.0% | 51.4% | 23.5% | 13,063 | 66.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nick Gibb | 13.8% | 51.3% | 9.0% | 13,944 | 64.5%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nick Gibb | 24.9% | 59.0% | 6.5% | 17,494 | 67.7%+3.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nick Gibb 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 19.0% | 62.2% | 13.3% | 22,682 | 68.2%+0.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Alison Griffiths | 29.1% | 32.8% | 10.6% | 1,765 | 62.2%-6.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.8 / 61.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 26.6vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.9 / 29.5vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.9 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+31.9 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave64.8 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.4 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.8 / 64.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent10.3 / 11.1vs 16.8
- ↑Leave64.8 / 65.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.9 / 31.0vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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