North West Norfolk
East of England · County constituency · King's Lynn and West Norfolk borough
About the North West Norfolk constituency
North West Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is James Wild (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 36.1% to 25.0% for Labour, a majority of 4,954 votes on a 59.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 39.6% and the Conservatives on 23.9%, a margin of 15.7 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in North West Norfolk? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North West Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North West Norfolk
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North West Norfolk within King's Lynn and West Norfolk
North West Norfolk sits entirely within King's Lynn and West Norfolk Council. King's Lynn and West Norfolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| King's Lynn and West Norfolk | 100% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clenchwarton & King's Lynn South | Independent | Independent 39% Ref 39% Con 9% | 35.8% |
| Dersingham | Ref | Ref 36% Con 23% Independent 14% | 47.2% |
| Docking | Ref | Ref 38% Independent 25% Con 20% | 46.4% |
| Freebridge Lynn | Ref | Ref 33% Independent 27% Con 20% | 46.8% |
| Gaywood North & Central | LD | LD 46% Ref 30% Con 12% | 39.0% |
| Gaywood South | Ref | Ref 36% LD 18% Con 14% | 28.6% |
| King's Lynn North & Central | Ref | Ref 38% Lab 16% Grn 16% | 24.8% |
| Marshland North | Ref | Ref 57% Con 22% Grn 9% | 38.6% |
| North Coast | Ref | Ref 33% Con 32% LD 23% | 47.5% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | Hunstanton | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 29% LD 26% Other 24% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Fairstead | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 39% LD 37% Lab 16% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | North Lynn | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 50% LD 22% Lab 19% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bircham with Rudhams | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 24.6% | 2023 Independent 62.2%vs Conservative 37.8% | - | 36.9% |
| Brancaster | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 56.9%vs Independent 43.1% | - | 37.4% |
| Burnham Market & Docking | Conservative 40.0%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 67.3%vs Labour 32.7% | - | 37.5% |
| Clenchwarton | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 21.4% | 2023 Independent 64.0%vs Conservative 36.0% | - | 29.9% |
| Dersingham | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 22.3% | 2023 Conservative 53.9%vs Green 16.8% | - | 45.0% |
| Fairstead | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Labour 61.5%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | 18.8% |
| Gayton & Grimston | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Green 37.3%vs Independent 34.7% | - | 41.1% |
| Gaywood Chase | Labour 31.1%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Labour 47.2%vs Independent 27.9% | - | 25.4% |
| Gaywood Clock | Labour 30.0%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Labour 69.0%vs Conservative 31.0% | - | 17.4% |
| Gaywood North Bank | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 27.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.2%vs Labour 32.8% | - | 28.3% |
| Heacham | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 22.2% | 2023 Independent 42.7%vs Conservative 37.6% | - | 45.4% |
| Hunstanton | Conservative 40.0%vs Labour 20.9% | 2023 Conservative 41.5%vs Independent 35.6% | - | 40.4% |
| Massingham with Castle Acre | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 24.0% | 2023 Independent 64.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 37.1% |
| North Lynn | Labour 29.9%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2023 Labour 81.5%vs Conservative 18.5% | - | 11.9% |
| Snettisham | Conservative 41.1%vs Labour 21.1% | 2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Independent 30.2% | - | 36.5% |
| South & West Lynn | Labour 30.9%vs Conservative 25.2% | 2023 Labour 41.6%vs Independent 38.7% | - | 27.7% |
| Springwood | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Independent 48.5%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | 32.8% |
| St. Margaret's with St. Nicholas | Labour 29.7%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Labour 40.0%vs Green 27.1% | - | 25.4% |
| Terrington | Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 54.4%vs Independent 27.2% | - | 31.1% |
| The Woottons | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 48.1%vs Independent 39.4% | - | 44.1% |
| Walsoken, West Walton & Walpole | Conservative 41.2%vs Reform 20.4% | 2023 Conservative 66.0%vs Independent 20.6% | - | 29.6% |
| West Winch | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Independent 52.0%vs Conservative 36.9% | - | 26.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North West Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North West Norfolk at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Henry Bellingham | 13.3% | 54.2% | 23.2% | 14,810 | 65.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Henry Bellingham | 22.8% | 52.2% | 3.5% | 13,948 | 63.7%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Henry Bellingham | 32.0% | 60.2% | 2.9% | 13,788 | 67.7%+4.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Wild 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.6% | 66.0% | 7.8% | 21,077 | 64.6%-3.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | James Wild | 25.0% | 36.1% | 14.6% | 4,954 | 59.9%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North West Norfolk
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North West Norfolk. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.8 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave65.8 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave65.8 / 63.1vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 30.0vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.8 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 28.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave65.8 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 31.9vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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