South West Norfolk
East of England · County constituency
About the South West Norfolk constituency
South West Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Terry Jermy (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 26.7% to 25.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 630 votes on a 59.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 44.2% and the Conservatives on 14.7%, a margin of 29.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in South West Norfolk? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South West Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South West Norfolk
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South West Norfolk within Breckland and King's Lynn and West Norfolk
South West Norfolk crosses council boundaries: Breckland (51%), King's Lynn and West Norfolk (49%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Breckland | 51% |
| King's Lynn and West Norfolk | 49% |
Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downham Market | Ref | Ref 39% Con 19% LD 17% | 42.1% |
| Feltwell | Ref | Ref 46% Con 27% LD 17% | 43.5% |
| Marshland South | Ref | Ref 44% Con 37% LD 10% | 38.1% |
| Nar & Wissey Valleys | Ref | Ref 43% Con 19% Independent 17% | 45.0% |
| Swaffham | Ref | Ref 46% Con 25% Grn 13% | 41.2% |
| The Brecks | Ref | Ref 45% Con 32% Grn 10% | 48.1% |
| Thetford East | Ref | Ref 43% Con 24% Lab 18% | 34.8% |
| Thetford West | Ref | Ref 48% Lab 21% Grn 10% | 27.3% |
| Watlington & The Fens | Ref | Ref 48% Con 26% Lab 10% | 42.1% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2025 | Thetford Castle | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 47% Lab 27% LD 15% |
| 1 May 2025 | Thetford Priory | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 45% Lab 30% Con 17% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Bedingfeld | Ref GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airfield | Labour 28.6%vs Conservative 22.5% | 2023 Independent 57.8%vs Green 23.7% | - | 37.7% |
| Ashill | Conservative 33.9%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Conservative 69.6%vs Labour 17.4% | - | 35.2% |
| Bedingfeld | Conservative 29.3%vs Reform 23.9% | 2023 Conservative 52.6%vs Labour 27.1% | - | 29.3% |
| Denver | Labour 26.1%vs Conservative 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.5%vs Lib Dem 48.5% | - | 30.9% |
| Downham Old Town | Labour 29.3%vs Reform 24.6% | 2023 Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 28.3% |
| East Downham | Labour 26.6%vs Reform 25.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 66.2%vs Conservative 33.8% | - | 22.9% |
| Emneth & Outwell | Conservative 25.6%vs Reform 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 61.2%vs Independent 26.8% | - | 28.0% |
| Feltwell | Conservative 28.8%vs Labour 25.1% | 2023 Conservative 56.3%vs Independent 21.1% | - | 32.6% |
| Forest | Conservative 29.0%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Conservative 69.3%vs Labour 30.7% | - | 27.6% |
| Guiltcross | Conservative 28.9%vs Labour 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 53.5%vs Labour 46.5% | - | 34.7% |
| Harling & Heathlands | Conservative 30.7%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 64.2%vs Labour 35.8% | - | 28.9% |
| Methwold | Conservative 25.1%vs Reform 24.1% | 2023 Independent 62.6%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 26.9% |
| Nar Valley | Conservative 29.8%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 61.5%vs Labour 38.5% | - | 32.5% |
| North Downham | Reform 24.6%vs Conservative 24.5% | 2023 Independent 55.8%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 30.6% |
| South Downham | Conservative 30.1%vs Reform 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 37.2%vs Independent 26.1% | - | 37.2% |
| Swaffham | Labour 25.4%vs Conservative 24.8% | 2023 Independent 51.3%vs Conservative 48.7% | - | 25.1% |
| Thetford Boudica | Labour 30.9%vs Reform 23.7% | 2023 Labour 63.5%vs Conservative 20.9% | - | 26.8% |
| Thetford Burrell | Labour 34.4%vs Reform 22.1% | 2023 Labour 56.7%vs Independent 43.3% | - | 19.8% |
| Thetford Castle | Labour 30.2%vs Conservative 23.6% | 2023 Labour 45.3%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 24.9% |
| Thetford Priory | Labour 32.1%vs Reform 23.4% | 2023 Labour 62.1%vs Independent 37.9% | - | 19.0% |
| Tilney, Mershe Lande & Wiggenhall | Conservative 26.4%vs Labour 25.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.9%vs Independent 22.2% | - | 31.4% |
| Upwell & Delph | Labour 27.0%vs Conservative 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Independent 25.4% | - | 33.9% |
| Watlington | Others 28.8%vs Labour 28.6% | 2019 Independent 75.4%vs Conservative 16.1% | - | 37.4% |
| Wissey | Conservative 31.3%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Independent 63.3%vs Conservative 36.7% | - | 33.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South West Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South West Norfolk at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Elizabeth Truss | 18.6% | 48.3% | 21.6% | 13,140 | 66.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Elizabeth Truss | 17.3% | 50.9% | 4.4% | 13,861 | 65.1%-1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Elizabeth Truss | 27.8% | 62.8% | 4.5% | 18,312 | 67.3%+2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Elizabeth Truss 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 18.3% | 68.7% | 8.3% | 24,180 | 66.3%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Terry Jermy | 26.7% | 25.3% | 5.9% | 630 | 59.3%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South West Norfolk
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South West Norfolk. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave66.7 / 65.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Leave66.7 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.8 / 25.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave66.7 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.1 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.7 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 28.4vs 22.7
- ↑Leave66.7 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate22.3 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.9 / 28.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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