South Holland and The Deepings
East Midlands · County constituency
About the South Holland and The Deepings constituency
South Holland and The Deepings is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Sir John Hayes (Conservative), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.0% to 23.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,856 votes on a 58.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 36.9% and the Conservatives on 34.0%, a margin of 2.9 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in South Holland and The Deepings? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Holland and The Deepings vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Holland and The Deepings
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Holland and The Deepings within South Holland and South Kesteven
South Holland and The Deepings crosses council boundaries: South Holland (85%), South Kesteven (15%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Holland | 85% |
| South Kesteven | 15% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | Long Sutton | Ref GAIN from Ind | Ref 56% Con 29% Grn 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowland and Deeping St Nicholas | Conservative 39.2%vs Reform 21.8% | 2023 Conservative 52.0%vs Independent 29.2% | - | 37.3% |
| Deeping St James | Conservative 33.5%vs Reform 23.3% | 2023 Independent 92.2%vs Labour 7.8% | - | 23.6% |
| Donington, Quadring and Gosberton | Conservative 41.7%vs Reform 20.1% | 2023 Conservative 53.4%vs Others 40.6% | - | 30.8% |
| Fleet | Conservative 43.3%vs Reform 20.9% | 2023 Others 65.5%vs Conservative 34.5% | - | 29.5% |
| Gedney | Conservative 40.4%vs Reform 23.8% | 2023 Conservative 60.7%vs Others 39.3% | - | 26.2% |
| Holbeach Hurn | Conservative 42.5%vs Reform 21.7% | 2023 Conservative 73.7%vs Green 26.3% | - | 25.0% |
| Holbeach Town | Conservative 38.0%vs Reform 23.7% | 2023 Conservative 49.0%vs Others 30.8% | - | 34.5% |
| Long Sutton | Conservative 39.0%vs Reform 23.4% | 2023 Independent 52.6%vs Conservative 47.4% | - | 32.1% |
| Market & West Deeping | Conservative 32.7%vs Reform 24.2% | 2023 Independent 100.0%uncontested | - | 17.1% |
| Moulton, Weston and Cowbit | Conservative 44.7%vs Reform 20.7% | 2023 Conservative 72.9%vs Others 27.1% | - | 32.9% |
| Pinchbeck and Surfleet | Conservative 40.2%vs Reform 22.6% | 2023 Conservative 69.5%vs Independent 18.9% | - | 34.5% |
| Spalding Castle | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 23.0% | 2023 Conservative 64.7%vs Green 35.3% | - | 28.3% |
| Spalding Monks House | Conservative 32.1%vs Reform 26.0% | 2023 Others 60.3%vs Conservative 39.7% | - | 25.5% |
| Spalding St John's | Conservative 31.0%vs Reform 25.8% | 2023 Others 74.2%vs Conservative 25.8% | - | 22.6% |
| Spalding St Mary's | Conservative 34.9%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Others 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7% | - | 27.2% |
| Spalding St Paul's | Conservative 31.0%vs Reform 27.2% | 2023 Others 64.4%vs Conservative 35.6% | - | 20.0% |
| Spalding Wygate | Conservative 38.7%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Others 24.8% | - | 27.2% |
| Sutton Bridge | Conservative 34.8%vs Reform 24.3% | 2023 Others 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 26.9% |
| The Saints | Conservative 45.5%vs Reform 22.1% | 2023 Conservative 76.8%vs Independent 23.2% | - | 32.2% |
| Whaplode and Holbeach St John's | Conservative 41.6%vs Reform 22.8% | 2023 Conservative 73.5%vs Others 26.6% | - | 28.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Holland and The Deepings at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Holland and The Deepings at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | John Hayes | 14.0% | 59.1% | 15.5% | 21,880 | 65.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | John Hayes | 12.4% | 59.6% | 3.0% | 18,567 | 64.4%-1.4 |
| 2017 | Con hold | John Hayes | 20.4% | 69.9% | 2.8% | 24,897 | 65.9%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | John Hayes 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 13.2% | 75.9% | 6.6% | 30,838 | 64.6%-1.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | John Hayes | 19.8% | 38.0% | 4.2% | 6,856 | 58.5%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Holland and The Deepings
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Holland and The Deepings. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave71.1 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.4 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.2 / 25.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave71.1 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.4 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+28.4 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave71.1 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.4 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave71.1 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.4 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied70.3 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave71.1 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.4 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.2 / 24.6vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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