Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency
About the Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme constituency
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Lee Pitcher (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.6% to 32.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,311 votes on a 55.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.2% and the Conservatives on 29.9%, a margin of 7.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme within Doncaster and North Lincolnshire
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme crosses council boundaries: Doncaster (77%), North Lincolnshire (23%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Doncaster | 77% |
| North Lincolnshire | 23% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | Axholme Central | Con HOLD | Con 49% Ref 36% Grn 8% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Axholme North | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axholme Central | Conservative 44.7%vs Labour 31.3% | 2023 Conservative 70.3%vs Labour 29.7% | - | 57.1% |
| Axholme North | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 37.1% | 2023 Conservative 62.2%vs Labour 32.5% | - | 59.5% |
| Axholme South | Conservative 46.4%vs Labour 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 77.2%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 30.1% |
| Finningley | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 33.2% | 2021 Conservative 61.3%vs Labour 28.4% | - | 33.0% |
| Hatfield | Labour 40.6%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2021 Labour 40.2%vs Conservative 29.5% | - | 26.1% |
| Rossington & Bawtry | Labour 45.6%vs Conservative 24.6% | 2021 Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 27.7% |
| Thorne & Moorends | Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2021 Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 30.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole MP | 33.1% | 44.9% | 14.6% | 5,147 | 65.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole MP | 27.2% | 53.0% | 1.8% | 11,176 | 63.2%-1.9 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole MP | 33.0% | 60.4% | 1.9% | 12,363 | 68.2%+5.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Percy Brigg and Goole MP, pre-review boundary | 28.7% | 52.1% | 4.4% | 10,085 | 61.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Lee Pitcher | 38.6% | 32.7% | 3.0% | 2,311 | 55.8%-5.6 |
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Brigg and Goole (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave68.8 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.8 / 64.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.8 / 65.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 24.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave68.8 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave68.8 / 69.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.2 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate24.8 / 26.1vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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