Rother Valley
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · Rotherham borough
About the Rother Valley constituency
Rother Valley is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Jake Richards (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.5% to 36.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 998 votes on a 59.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 35.0% and Reform UK on 27.1%, a margin of 7.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Rother Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rother Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rother Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rother Valley within Rotherham
Rother Valley sits entirely within Rotherham Council. Rotherham was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Rotherham | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anston & Woodsetts | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 34.3% | 2024 Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 32.2% | - | 36.0% |
| Aston & Todwick | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 35.5% | 2024 Conservative 50.8%vs Labour 43.3% | - | 35.0% |
| Aughton & Swallownest | Labour 43.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2024 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 18.0% | - | 29.0% |
| Dinnington | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 37.8% | 2024 Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 40.3% | - | 33.0% |
| Hellaby & Maltby West | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 39.0% | 2024 Conservative 50.0%vs Labour 40.9% | - | 34.0% |
| Maltby East | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 31.1% | 2024 Labour 49.9%vs Conservative 47.3% | - | 26.0% |
| Sitwell | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 38.0% | 2024 Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 28.2% | - | 39.0% |
| Thurcroft & Wickersley South | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 32.7% | 2024 Conservative 64.1%vs Labour 30.1% | - | 30.0% |
| Wales | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2024 Independent 46.1%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 34.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rother Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rother Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kevin Barron | 40.9% | 28.4% | 17.3% | 5,866 | 64.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kevin Barron | 43.6% | 23.3% | 4.2% | 7,297 | 63.3%-0.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kevin Barron | 48.1% | 40.3% | 2.3% | 3,882 | 65.8%+2.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alexander Stafford 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 32.6% | 46.1% | 4.8% | 6,135 | 64.8%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jake Richards | 38.5% | 36.1% | 2.8% | 998 | 59.9%-4.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rother Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rother Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave66.7 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.7 / 64.9vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave66.7 / 65.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.7 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.7 / 66.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.4 / 69.0vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.