Constituency profile

Makerfield

North West · Borough constituency · Wigan borough

Andy Burnham MP
Sitting MP

Andy Burnham

Labour

First elected June 2026Cabinet: Prime Minister

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency, Wigan council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
64.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +13.0pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +16.6pp
vs Reform UK 34.3%
NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Makerfield constituency

Makerfield is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Andy Burnham (Labour), first elected in June 2026. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.2% to 31.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 5,399 votes on a 52.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 50.9% and Reform UK on 34.3%, a margin of 16.6 points.

Who lives in Makerfield? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
64.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
72.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
26.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
43.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
24.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
27.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Makerfield vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 5,399 votes (13.4pp) · turnout 52.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Makerfield

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Makerfield within Wigan

Makerfield sits entirely within Wigan Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Wigan
62 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AbramLabour 45.9%vs Reform 32.0%May 2026 Reform 56.1%vs Labour 24.2%
Labour→Reform
+22.9pp
33.1%
Ashton-in-Makerfield SouthLabour 46.6%vs Reform 32.5%May 2026 Reform 46.4%vs Labour 32.5%
Labour→Reform
+14.0pp
38.5%
Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield NorthLabour 39.5%vs Reform 36.2%May 2026 Reform 52.2%vs Labour 24.1%
Labour→Reform
+15.7pp
37.8%
HindleyLabour 49.6%vs Reform 30.6%May 2026 Reform 52.3%vs Labour 21.4%
Labour→Reform
+24.9pp
35.3%
Hindley GreenLabour 45.5%vs Reform 31.6%May 2026 Reform 52.3%vs Labour 32.7%
Labour→Reform
+16.8pp
38.9%
Leigh WestLabour 51.0%vs Reform 28.0%May 2026 Reform 51.8%vs Labour 25.5%
Labour→Reform
+24.7pp
33.6%
OrrellLabour 41.2%vs Reform 29.5%May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Labour 24.2%
Labour→Reform
+13.7pp
43.0%
WinstanleyLabour 45.4%vs Reform 31.1%May 2026 Reform 49.7%vs Labour 31.0%
Labour→Reform
+16.4pp
42.4%
Worsley MesnesLabour 47.2%vs Reform 31.6%May 2026 Reform 50.9%vs Labour 25.2%
Labour→Reform
+20.7pp
37.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Makerfield at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Makerfield at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdYvonne Fovargue47.3%18.8%16.2%--17.8%12,49059.3%
2015Lab holdYvonne Fovargue51.8%19.5%3.7%22.4% UKIP2.5%-13,15560.3%+1.0
2017Lab holdYvonne Fovargue60.2%31.3%2.8%--5.7%13,54263.2%+2.9
2019notionalLabour winnerYvonne Fovargue 2019 MP, pre-review boundary45.3%34.3%4.8%-2.6%13.0%4,95559.0%-4.2
2024Lab holdJosh Simons45.2%10.9%6.8%31.8% Ref4.4%0.9%5,39952.5%-6.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Makerfield

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Makerfield. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.