Amber Valley
East Midlands · County constituency · Amber Valley borough
About the Amber Valley constituency
Amber Valley is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Linsey Farnsworth (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.0% to 28.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 3,554 votes on a 59.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.3% and Labour on 27.6%, a margin of 10.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Amber Valley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Amber Valley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Amber Valley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Amber Valley within Amber Valley
Amber Valley sits entirely within Amber Valley Council. Amber Valley was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Amber Valley | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | Codnor Langley Mill & Aldercar | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 46% Con 19% LD 12% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Somercotes | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 45% Lab 40% LD 6% |
| 1 May 2025 | Ironville and Riddings | Ind GAIN from Lab | Other 31% Con 30% Lab 23% |
| 1 May 2025 | Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook and Horsley | Con GAIN from Lab | Con 32% Grn 25% Lab 22% |
| 8 May 2024 | Crich & South Wingfield | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton | Labour 40.6%vs Reform 31.2% | 2023 Labour 53.4%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 24.9% |
| Codnor, Langley Mill & Aldercar | Labour 38.3%vs Reform 29.0% | 2023 Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 30.0% |
| Crich & South Wingfield | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 30.8% | 2023 Conservative 38.1%vs Lib Dem 34.9% | - | 47.5% |
| Heage & Ambergate | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | 40.7% |
| Heanor East | Labour 34.4%vs Reform 33.7% | 2023 Labour 34.5%vs Reform 32.9% | - | 30.7% |
| Heanor West & Loscoe | Labour 37.6%vs Reform 31.7% | 2023 Labour 37.8%vs Reform 27.0% | - | 31.4% |
| Ironville & Riddings | Labour 38.3%vs Reform 29.6% | 2023 Labour 47.1%vs Conservative 29.8% | - | 31.9% |
| Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 37.6% | - | 40.1% |
| Ripley | Labour 37.9%vs Reform 28.6% | 2023 Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 37.3% | - | 34.7% |
| Ripley & Marehay | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 28.0% | 2023 Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 37.7% | - | 34.3% |
| Smalley, Shipley & Horsley Woodhouse | Conservative 31.1%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Green 40.1%vs Conservative 29.6% | - | 42.9% |
| Somercotes | Labour 40.5%vs Reform 32.6% | 2023 Labour 60.6%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | 23.8% |
| Swanwick | Labour 33.0%vs Reform 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 35.4% | - | 44.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Amber Valley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Amber Valley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Nigel Mills | 37.4% | 38.6% | 14.4% | 536 | 65.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nigel Mills | 34.8% | 44.0% | 3.0% | 4,205 | 65.8%+0.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nigel Mills | 38.4% | 56.5% | 2.4% | 8,300 | 67.3%+1.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Nigel Mills 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 26.8% | 63.8% | 6.3% | 16,891 | 64.6%-2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Linsey Farnsworth | 37.0% | 25.2% | 3.7% | 3,554 | 59.4%-5.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Amber Valley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Amber Valley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.3 / 64.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 66.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.3 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.3 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 72.2vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.