Tamworth
West Midlands · County constituency
About the Tamworth constituency
Tamworth is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Sarah Edwards (Labour), first elected in October 2023. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.0% to 31.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,382 votes on a 58.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 39.7% and Labour on 27.4%, a margin of 12.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Tamworth? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Tamworth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Tamworth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Tamworth within Tamworth and Lichfield
Tamworth crosses council boundaries: Tamworth (80%), Lichfield (20%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 80% | View projection › |
| Lichfield | 20% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Wilnecote | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 46% Other 22% Con 12% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amington | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 30.9% | May 2026 Reform 53.2%vs Conservative 18.3% | Labour→Reform +24.3pp | 38.2% |
| Belgrave | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.3% | May 2026 Reform 56.2%vs Conservative 13.7% | Labour→Reform +29.4pp | 33.4% |
| Bolehall | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 27.8% | May 2026 Reform 51.3%vs Labour 19.2% | Labour→Reform +23.2pp | 37.4% |
| Bourne Vale | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 34.4% | Sitting Conservative x1no contested ballot | - | - |
| Castle | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 32.2% | May 2026 Reform 49.2%vs Conservative 21.5% | Labour→Reform +26.8pp | 38.2% |
| Fazeley | Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Labour 38.2% | - | 25.0% |
| Glascote | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 28.2% | May 2026 Reform 59.0%vs Labour 14.6% | Labour→Reform +26.7pp | 32.5% |
| Little Aston & Stonnall | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 25.3% | 2023 Conservative 62.5%vs Independent 26.3% | - | 32.9% |
| Mease Valley | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 30.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 43.7% | - | 35.6% |
| Mercian | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Reform 45.2%vs Conservative 19.7% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | 38.3% |
| Shenstone | Conservative 36.6%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Conservative 69.1%vs Labour 30.9% | - | 33.1% |
| Spital | Labour 33.3%vs Conservative 29.4% | May 2026 Reform 44.6%vs Green 22.1% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | 39.1% |
| Stonydelph | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Reform 55.0%vs Conservative 17.6% | Labour→Reform +27.7pp | 34.0% |
| Trinity | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 31.7% | May 2026 Reform 55.2%vs Conservative 22.6% | Conservative→Reform +20.8pp | 42.1% |
| Whittington & Streethay | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Labour 40.0% | - | 40.2% |
| Wilnecote | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2024 Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 25.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Tamworth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Tamworth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Chris Pincher | 32.7% | 45.8% | 16.2% | 6,090 | 64.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Christopher Pincher | 26.1% | 50.0% | 3.0% | 11,302 | 65.6%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Christopher Pincher | 34.8% | 61.0% | 4.2% | 12,347 | 66.1%+0.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Christopher Pincher 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.3% | 66.7% | 5.3% | 20,663 | 64.6%-1.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sarah Edwards | 35.0% | 31.9% | 3.3% | 1,382 | 58.3%-6.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Tamworth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Tamworth. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave66.0 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 67.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.0 / 65.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 24.3vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.0 / 64.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 24.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.0 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave66.0 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate24.9 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 69.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.