North Warwickshire and Bedworth
West Midlands · County constituency
About the North Warwickshire and Bedworth constituency
North Warwickshire and Bedworth is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Rachel Taylor (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.0% to 30.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,198 votes on a 58.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 35.3% and the Conservatives on 29.2%, a margin of 6.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North Warwickshire and Bedworth? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Warwickshire and Bedworth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Warwickshire and Bedworth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Warwickshire and Bedworth within North Warwickshire and Nuneaton and Bedworth
North Warwickshire and Bedworth crosses council boundaries: North Warwickshire (57%), Nuneaton and Bedworth (43%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| North Warwickshire | 57% | — |
| Nuneaton and Bedworth | 43% | View projection › |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Atherstone Central | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 49% Con 24% Lab 20% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherstone Central | Labour 39.9%vs Reform 29.6% | 2023 Labour 67.1%vs Conservative 32.9% | - | 21.6% |
| Atherstone North | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Labour 48.2% | - | 27.0% |
| Atherstone South and Mancetter | Labour 36.1%vs Reform 28.1% | 2023 Labour 51.0%vs Conservative 49.0% | - | 29.8% |
| Baddesley and Grendon | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 57.2%vs Labour 42.8% | - | 32.9% |
| Bede | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Reform 57.3%vs Labour 26.9% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | 36.4% |
| Coleshill North | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 51.9%vs Conservative 48.1% | - | 31.1% |
| Coleshill South | Conservative 36.1%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Conservative 60.9%vs Labour 39.1% | - | 30.1% |
| Curdworth | Conservative 38.8%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 66.4%vs Labour 23.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Dordon | Labour 39.1%vs Reform 27.6% | 2023 Independent 66.4%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 27.5% |
| Exhall | Labour 38.7%vs Conservative 30.1% | May 2026 Reform 43.6%vs Labour 19.6% | Labour→Reform +18.5pp | 34.9% |
| Fillongley | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 28.4% | 2023 Conservative 72.5%vs Labour 27.4% | - | 30.3% |
| Heath | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 29.3% | May 2026 Reform 50.1%vs Labour 19.0% | Labour→Reform +20.6pp | 35.3% |
| Hurley and Wood End | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Labour 61.1%vs Conservative 38.9% | - | 29.8% |
| Kingsbury | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 66.3%vs Labour 26.3% | - | 32.4% |
| Newton Regis and Warton | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 49.4% | - | 34.2% |
| Polesworth East | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 26.9% | 2023 Labour 61.1%vs Conservative 38.9% | - | 29.3% |
| Polesworth West | Labour 38.0%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 57.9%vs Conservative 42.1% | - | 28.4% |
| Poplar | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 28.1% | May 2026 Reform 39.7%vs Conservative 24.5% | Labour→Reform +17.1pp | 34.0% |
| Slough | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 32.9% | May 2026 Reform 45.8%vs Conservative 29.8% | Labour→Reform +18.4pp | 39.6% |
| Water Orton | Conservative 35.1%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Independent 42.7%vs Conservative 42.4% | - | 33.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Warwickshire and Bedworth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Warwickshire and Bedworth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Daniel Byles North Warwickshire MP | 40.1% | 40.2% | 11.6% | 54 | 67.4% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Craig Tracey North Warwickshire MP | 36.0% | 42.3% | 2.1% | 2,973 | 67.5%+0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Craig Tracey North Warwickshire MP | 38.9% | 56.9% | 2.2% | 8,510 | 65.3%-2.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Craig Tracey North Warwickshire MP, pre-review boundary | 26.8% | 65.9% | 4.5% | 17,956 | 65.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Rachel Taylor | 36.0% | 30.6% | 3.0% | 2,198 | 58.7%-6.7 |
North Warwickshire and Bedworth was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat North Warwickshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like North Warwickshire and Bedworth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Warwickshire and Bedworth. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave67.8 / 66.0vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 69.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 67.0vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.9 / 70.3vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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