Current projection

Battleground constituencies

Closest projected margins and projected changes of hands · seven-poll average · updated 7 July 2026

Of the 632 Great Britain constituencies in the PollCheck model, 313 are projected to change hands at the current seven-poll average. Projected gains by party: Reform UK 233, SNP 33, Conservative 23, Green 10, Liberal Democrats 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Others 2, Restore Britain 1. The 50 seats with the narrowest projected margins are listed first; every figure updates as new polls are added.

The 50 closest projected seats

Narrowest projected winner-to-runner-up margins across GB. How these projections work ›

Constituency	Region	GE2024	Projection	Margin (pp)
Newport East	Wales	Labour	Labour	0.0
East Surrey	South East	Conservative	Conservative	0.0
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Scotland	Labour	SNP	0.0
Birmingham Yardley	West Midlands	Labour	Green	0.1
Leeds Central and Headingley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Green	0.1
East Kilbride and Strathaven	Scotland	Labour	Labour	0.1
Northampton North	East Midlands	Labour	Labour	0.2
Norwich South	East of England	Labour	Green	0.2
Southampton Itchen	South East	Labour	Reform UK	0.2
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Scotland	Conservative	SNP	0.2
South West Hertfordshire	East of England	Conservative	Reform UK	0.3
Bathgate and Linlithgow	Scotland	Labour	SNP	0.3
North Dorset	South West	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	0.3
East Hampshire	South East	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	0.3
Gosport	South East	Conservative	Conservative	0.3
North Northumberland	North East	Labour	Reform UK	0.4
North East Somerset and Hanham	South West	Labour	Reform UK	0.4
Congleton	North West	Labour	Reform UK	0.5
Rutherglen	Scotland	Labour	Labour	0.5
Romsey and Southampton North	South East	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	0.5
Beverley and Holderness	Yorkshire and The Humber	Conservative	Reform UK	0.5
Buckingham and Bletchley	South East	Labour	Reform UK	0.6
Colchester	East of England	Labour	Reform UK	0.6
Salisbury	South West	Conservative	Conservative	0.7
Norwich North	East of England	Labour	Labour	0.8
Clwyd North	Wales	Labour	Reform UK	0.8
Llanelli	Wales	Labour	Reform UK	0.8
Finchley and Golders Green	London	Labour	Labour	0.9
Aldershot	South East	Labour	Reform UK	1.0
Warrington North	North West	Labour	Labour	1.0
South West Devon	South West	Conservative	Reform UK	1.0
Pendle and Clitheroe	North West	Labour	Conservative	1.1
Lincoln	East Midlands	Labour	Labour	1.1
Old Bexley and Sidcup	London	Conservative	Conservative	1.1
Leicester South	East Midlands	Others	Others	1.1
Shipley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Labour	1.1
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Scotland	Liberal Democrats	SNP	1.1
Rother Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Conservative	1.1
Dunfermline and Dollar	Scotland	Labour	Labour	1.1
Gordon and Buchan	Scotland	Conservative	SNP	1.2
Calder Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Reform UK	1.2
Stafford	West Midlands	Labour	Conservative	1.2
Swansea West	Wales	Labour	Plaid Cymru	1.2
Colne Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Conservative	1.2
Wyre Forest	West Midlands	Conservative	Reform UK	1.2
Farnham and Bordon	South East	Conservative	Liberal Democrats	1.2
East Wiltshire	South West	Conservative	Conservative	1.3
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	South East	Labour	Green	1.3
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	South East	Labour	Labour	1.4
Rushcliffe	East Midlands	Labour	Conservative	1.4

Projected changes of hands by party

Every seat whose projected winner differs from its GE2024 winner, grouped by the gaining party, closest margin first.

Reform UK: 233 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Southampton Itchen	South East	Labour	0.2
South West Hertfordshire	East of England	Conservative	0.3
North Northumberland	North East	Labour	0.4
North East Somerset and Hanham	South West	Labour	0.4
Congleton	North West	Labour	0.5
Beverley and Holderness	Yorkshire and The Humber	Conservative	0.5
Buckingham and Bletchley	South East	Labour	0.6
Colchester	East of England	Labour	0.6
Clwyd North	Wales	Labour	0.8
Llanelli	Wales	Labour	0.8
Aldershot	South East	Labour	1.0
South West Devon	South West	Conservative	1.0
Calder Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	1.2
Wyre Forest	West Midlands	Conservative	1.2
South Derbyshire	East Midlands	Labour	1.5
Barrow and Furness	North West	Labour	1.6
Preston	North West	Labour	1.6
South West Wiltshire	South West	Conservative	1.6
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Wales	Labour	1.6
Worsley and Eccles	North West	Labour	1.6
South Northamptonshire	East Midlands	Conservative	1.7
Staffordshire Moorlands	West Midlands	Conservative	1.8
Spelthorne	South East	Conservative	1.8
East Thanet	South East	Labour	1.9
Hertford and Stortford	East of England	Labour	1.9
North East Derbyshire	East Midlands	Labour	2.1
Bexhill and Battle	South East	Conservative	2.1
Cramlington and Killingworth	North East	Labour	2.1
Blaydon and Consett	North East	Labour	2.2
South Norfolk	East of England	Labour	2.2
Stevenage	East of England	Labour	2.2
Penrith and Solway	North West	Labour	2.3
Loughborough	East Midlands	Labour	2.3
Hinckley and Bosworth	East Midlands	Conservative	2.3
Wrexham	Wales	Labour	2.4
Aylesbury	South East	Labour	2.4
Pontypridd	Wales	Labour	2.4
Bracknell	South East	Labour	2.7
Newport West and Islwyn	Wales	Labour	2.7
Morecambe and Lunesdale	North West	Labour	2.7
Selby	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	2.8
Sussex Weald	South East	Conservative	2.8
Aberafan Maesteg	Wales	Labour	2.8
Swindon North	South West	Labour	2.8
Gravesham	South East	Labour	2.9
Bridgend	Wales	Labour	2.9
Gower	Wales	Labour	3.0
Redcar	North East	Labour	3.0
The Wrekin	West Midlands	Conservative	3.1
Broxtowe	East Midlands	Labour	3.1
Mid Cheshire	North West	Labour	3.1
Clwyd East	Wales	Labour	3.2
Corby and East Northamptonshire	East Midlands	Labour	3.3
Mid Bedfordshire	East of England	Conservative	3.3
Rossendale and Darwen	North West	Labour	3.3
Dartford	South East	Labour	3.4
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	3.4
Crawley	South East	Labour	3.4
South Dorset	South West	Labour	3.4
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Wales	Labour	3.5
Bradford East	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	3.5
Bassetlaw	East Midlands	Labour	3.5
Gloucester	South West	Labour	3.6
Wigan	North West	Labour	3.6
Huntingdon	East of England	Conservative	3.7
Aldridge-Brownhills	West Midlands	Conservative	3.8
Leeds South West and Morley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	3.8
Camborne and Redruth	South West	Labour	3.9
North East Hertfordshire	East of England	Labour	4.0
Peterborough	East of England	Labour	4.1
Bolsover	East Midlands	Labour	4.1
Stoke-on-Trent Central	West Midlands	Labour	4.1
St Helens South and Whiston	North West	Labour	4.1
Stourbridge	West Midlands	Labour	4.1
Forest of Dean	South West	Labour	4.4
Broadland and Fakenham	East of England	Conservative	4.5
Southport	North West	Labour	4.5
Dagenham and Rainham	London	Labour	4.5
Bexleyheath and Crayford	London	Labour	4.5
Crewe and Nantwich	North West	Labour	4.5
Bolton West	North West	Labour	4.8
Hastings and Rye	South East	Labour	4.9
Exmouth and Exeter East	South West	Conservative	4.9
Erewash	East Midlands	Labour	4.9
Derby South	East Midlands	Labour	5.0
Wolverhampton North East	West Midlands	Labour	5.0
North East Cambridgeshire	East of England	Conservative	5.1
Newton Abbot	South West	Liberal Democrats	5.1
Romford	London	Conservative	5.1
Bournemouth West	South West	Labour	5.1
Christchurch	South West	Conservative	5.2
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Wales	Labour	5.2
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	West Midlands	Labour	5.2
Weston-Super-Mare	South West	Labour	5.3
City of Durham	North East	Labour	5.3
Doncaster North	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	5.3
St Helens North	North West	Labour	5.5
Dover and Deal	South East	Labour	5.5
Mid Leicestershire	East Midlands	Conservative	5.5
North West Leicestershire	East Midlands	Labour	5.6
Hemel Hempstead	East of England	Labour	5.6
Broxbourne	East of England	Conservative	5.7
Blackpool South	North West	Labour	5.7
Poole	South West	Labour	5.7
North West Essex	East of England	Conservative	5.8
Redditch	West Midlands	Labour	5.8
Central Devon	South West	Conservative	5.9
Northampton South	East Midlands	Labour	6.0
Maidstone and Malling	South East	Conservative	6.1
Stoke-on-Trent South	West Midlands	Labour	6.1
Herne Bay and Sandwich	South East	Conservative	6.2
Burton and Uttoxeter	West Midlands	Labour	6.2
Torridge and Tavistock	South West	Conservative	6.2
Neath and Swansea East	Wales	Labour	6.5
Stoke-on-Trent North	West Midlands	Labour	6.5
Leigh and Atherton	North West	Labour	6.5
Stalybridge and Hyde	North West	Labour	6.6
Weald of Kent	South East	Conservative	6.6
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	East of England	Labour	6.8
Torfaen	Wales	Labour	6.9
Brigg and Immingham	Yorkshire and The Humber	Conservative	6.9
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend	North East	Labour	7.0
Daventry	East Midlands	Conservative	7.0
Ashford	South East	Labour	7.1
Penistone and Stocksbridge	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.1
Bridlington and The Wolds	Yorkshire and The Humber	Conservative	7.2
Rotherham	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.2
Grantham and Bourne	East Midlands	Conservative	7.3
Rochdale	North West	Labour	7.4
Bolton South and Walkden	North West	Labour	7.5
Ossett and Denby Dale	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.5
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	North East	Labour	7.6
Plymouth Moor View	South West	Labour	7.6
Hyndburn	North West	Labour	7.6
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	North West	Labour	7.6
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.7
Kettering	East Midlands	Labour	7.8
Mansfield	East Midlands	Labour	7.8
South Holland and The Deepings	East Midlands	Conservative	7.8
Birmingham Erdington	West Midlands	Labour	7.8
Rhondda and Ogmore	Wales	Labour	7.9
Gainsborough	East Midlands	Conservative	7.9
Telford	West Midlands	Labour	7.9
Witham	East of England	Conservative	8.0
North Warwickshire and Bedworth	West Midlands	Labour	8.2
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West	North East	Labour	8.2
Braintree	East of England	Conservative	8.3
Alyn and Deeside	Wales	Labour	8.4
Scunthorpe	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	8.4
Stockton North	North East	Labour	8.4
Blyth and Ashington	North East	Labour	8.4
Halesowen	West Midlands	Labour	8.4
West Suffolk	East of England	Conservative	8.5
South Leicestershire	East Midlands	Conservative	8.6
Southend West and Leigh	East of England	Labour	8.7
Sleaford and North Hykeham	East Midlands	Conservative	8.7
Carlisle	North West	Labour	8.8
Harlow	East of England	Labour	8.9
Gillingham and Rainham	South East	Labour	9.1
Ashton-under-Lyne	North West	Labour	9.1
Wellingborough and Rushden	East Midlands	Labour	9.1
Doncaster Central	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	9.2
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	South East	Conservative	9.4
Maldon	East of England	Conservative	9.4
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	North West	Labour	9.5
Burnley	North West	Labour	9.5
Gateshead Central and Whickham	North East	Labour	9.5
Mid Derbyshire	East Midlands	Labour	9.6
Bolton North East	North West	Labour	9.8
Nuneaton	West Midlands	Labour	9.8
Bishop Auckland	North East	Labour	9.9
Birmingham Northfield	West Midlands	Labour	10.1
Scarborough and Whitby	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	10.1
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	East of England	Labour	10.2
Hartlepool	North East	Labour	10.5
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	10.6
Heywood and Middleton North	North West	Labour	10.8
Easington	North East	Labour	10.8
South Shields	North East	Labour	10.9
Oldham East and Saddleworth	North West	Labour	10.9
St Austell and Newquay	South West	Labour	11.0
Portsmouth North	South East	Labour	11.2
Isle of Wight West	South East	Labour	11.3
North West Cambridgeshire	East of England	Labour	11.5
Halifax	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	11.5
Jarrow and Gateshead East	North East	Labour	11.5
Newcastle-under-Lyme	West Midlands	Labour	12.0
Tipton and Wednesbury	West Midlands	Labour	12.0
Louth and Horncastle	East Midlands	Conservative	12.0
Sherwood Forest	East Midlands	Labour	12.0
Normanton and Hemsworth	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	12.2
Rochester and Strood	South East	Labour	12.6
Folkestone and Hythe	South East	Labour	12.7
Hornchurch and Upminster	London	Conservative	12.8
Brentwood and Ongar	East of England	Conservative	12.8
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	12.8
Southend East and Rochford	East of England	Labour	13.3
Bridgwater	South West	Conservative	13.3
Dudley	West Midlands	Labour	13.4
Spen Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	13.9
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	13.9
Havant	South East	Conservative	14.2
South East Cornwall	South West	Labour	14.2
Faversham and Mid Kent	South East	Conservative	14.3
Suffolk Coastal	East of England	Labour	14.5
Harwich and North Essex	East of England	Conservative	14.9
Chatham and Aylesford	South East	Labour	15.0
South Suffolk	East of England	Conservative	15.0
Barnsley North	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	15.3
Wakefield and Rothwell	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	15.3
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	East of England	Conservative	15.5
Rayleigh and Wickford	East of England	Conservative	15.5
Mid Norfolk	East of England	Conservative	15.6
North West Norfolk	East of England	Conservative	15.7
Isle of Wight East	South East	Conservative	15.8
Amber Valley	East Midlands	Labour	16.5
Thurrock	East of England	Labour	16.6
Tamworth	West Midlands	Labour	16.9
Walsall and Bloxwich	West Midlands	Labour	17.4
Washington and Gateshead South	North East	Labour	17.8
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	South East	Labour	18.2
Lowestoft	East of England	Labour	18.4
Cannock Chase	West Midlands	Labour	18.6
Bradford South	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	18.7
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	18.9
Houghton and Sunderland South	North East	Labour	19.9
Sunderland Central	North East	Labour	19.9
Kingston upon Hull East	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	20.9
North Durham	North East	Labour	20.9
Basildon and Billericay	East of England	Conservative	21.2
Barnsley South	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	23.2
Castle Point	East of England	Conservative	23.5
South West Norfolk	East of England	Labour	29.5

SNP: 33 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Scotland	Labour	0.0
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Scotland	Conservative	0.2
Bathgate and Linlithgow	Scotland	Labour	0.3
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Scotland	Liberal Democrats	1.1
Gordon and Buchan	Scotland	Conservative	1.2
Midlothian	Scotland	Labour	1.9
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Scotland	Labour	2.0
Coatbridge and Bellshill	Scotland	Labour	2.9
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Scotland	Labour	3.7
Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	Conservative	4.7
Central Ayrshire	Scotland	Labour	4.8
Glasgow West	Scotland	Labour	5.2
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Scotland	Labour	5.9
West Dunbartonshire	Scotland	Labour	6.1
Edinburgh North and Leith	Scotland	Labour	6.1
Alloa and Grangemouth	Scotland	Labour	6.4
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Scotland	Labour	6.5
East Renfrewshire	Scotland	Labour	6.9
Edinburgh South West	Scotland	Labour	8.0
Glasgow North East	Scotland	Labour	9.1
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Scotland	Labour	9.3
Falkirk	Scotland	Labour	9.3
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Scotland	Labour	9.5
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Scotland	Labour	9.7
Glasgow East	Scotland	Labour	10.0
Glasgow South	Scotland	Labour	11.5
Livingston	Scotland	Labour	11.6
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Scotland	Labour	11.6
Glasgow North	Scotland	Labour	11.9
North Ayrshire and Arran	Scotland	Labour	12.0
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Scotland	Labour	12.7
Glasgow South West	Scotland	Labour	13.0
Stirling and Strathallan	Scotland	Labour	17.0

Conservative: 23 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Pendle and Clitheroe	North West	Labour	1.1
Rother Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	1.1
Stafford	West Midlands	Labour	1.2
Colne Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	1.2
Rushcliffe	East Midlands	Labour	1.4
Rugby	West Midlands	Labour	1.5
Vale of Glamorgan	Wales	Labour	1.6
Kensington and Bayswater	London	Labour	2.2
Derbyshire Dales	East Midlands	Labour	2.4
Chipping Barnet	London	Labour	2.8
Ribble Valley	North West	Labour	3.0
Lichfield	West Midlands	Labour	3.2
Cities of London and Westminster	London	Labour	3.9
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	North East	Labour	4.5
Darlington	North East	Labour	4.9
North Somerset	South West	Labour	4.9
Earley and Woodley	South East	Labour	5.6
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	London	Labour	5.7
Altrincham and Sale West	North West	Labour	6.3
Hendon	London	Labour	6.8
Monmouthshire	Wales	Labour	6.9
Hexham	North East	Labour	7.3
Chelsea and Fulham	London	Labour	8.2

Green: 10 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Birmingham Yardley	West Midlands	Labour	0.1
Leeds Central and Headingley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	0.1
Norwich South	East of England	Labour	0.2
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	South East	Labour	1.3
Manchester Rusholme	North West	Labour	3.4
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley	West Midlands	Others	4.7
Sheffield Central	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	6.5
Bristol South	South West	Labour	8.7
Bristol East	South West	Labour	9.9
Huddersfield	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	10.1

Liberal Democrats: 7 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
North Dorset	South West	Conservative	0.3
East Hampshire	South East	Conservative	0.3
Romsey and Southampton North	South East	Conservative	0.5
Farnham and Bordon	South East	Conservative	1.2
Godalming and Ash	South East	Conservative	1.9
South Shropshire	West Midlands	Conservative	2.7
Sheffield Hallam	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.7

Plaid Cymru: 4 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Swansea West	Wales	Labour	1.2
Caerphilly	Wales	Labour	10.5
Bangor Aberconwy	Wales	Labour	12.1
Cardiff West	Wales	Labour	14.1

Others: 2 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Birmingham Ladywood	West Midlands	Labour	13.9
Bethnal Green and Stepney	London	Labour	21.0

Restore Britain: 1 projected gain

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Great Yarmouth	East of England	Reform UK	13.7

All GB constituencies East of England constituencies PollCheck swingometer