Current projection

Battleground constituencies

Closest projected margins and projected changes of hands · seven-poll average · updated 22 October 2026

Of the 632 Great Britain constituencies in the PollCheck model, 122 are projected to change hands at the current seven-poll average. Projected gains by party: Reform UK 55, SNP 32, Conservative 29, Plaid Cymru 3, Others 2, Restore Britain 1. The 50 seats with the narrowest projected margins are listed first; every figure updates as new polls are added.

The 50 closest projected seats

Narrowest projected winner-to-runner-up margins across GB. How these projections work ›

Constituency	Region	GE2024	Projection	Margin (pp)
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Labour	0.0
Newton Abbot	South West	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	0.0
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	Scotland	SNP	SNP	0.1
Surrey Heath	South East	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	0.1
Wrexham	Wales	Labour	Labour	0.1
Hendon	London	Labour	Conservative	0.1
Earley and Woodley	South East	Labour	Labour	0.2
Spen Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Reform UK	0.2
Leicester South	East Midlands	Others	Others	0.3
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Scotland	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	0.3
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Wales	Liberal Democrats	Conservative	0.3
Erewash	East Midlands	Labour	Labour	0.3
Bolsover	East Midlands	Labour	Reform UK	0.3
Ribble Valley	North West	Labour	Labour	0.3
Bassetlaw	East Midlands	Labour	Labour	0.4
Lichfield	West Midlands	Labour	Conservative	0.4
St Austell and Newquay	South West	Labour	Reform UK	0.4
East Thanet	South East	Labour	Labour	0.4
Stourbridge	West Midlands	Labour	Reform UK	0.4
Torfaen	Wales	Labour	Reform UK	0.4
Wellingborough and Rushden	East Midlands	Labour	Reform UK	0.5
East Kilbride and Strathaven	Scotland	Labour	SNP	0.5
Wyre Forest	West Midlands	Conservative	Reform UK	0.5
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	East of England	Labour	Labour	0.6
Worthing West	South East	Labour	Conservative	0.6
Kingston upon Hull East	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Reform UK	0.6
Aldershot	South East	Labour	Labour	0.6
Banbury	South East	Labour	Conservative	0.6
Peterborough	East of England	Labour	Labour	0.6
Bicester and Woodstock	South East	Liberal Democrats	Conservative	0.6
Crawley	South East	Labour	Labour	0.7
Northampton South	East Midlands	Labour	Labour	0.7
Hyndburn	North West	Labour	Reform UK	0.7
Pontypridd	Wales	Labour	Labour	0.7
Castle Point	East of England	Conservative	Reform UK	0.8
Pendle and Clitheroe	North West	Labour	Labour	0.8
Torbay	South West	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	0.8
Blackpool South	North West	Labour	Labour	0.9
Burnley	North West	Labour	Reform UK	0.9
Stratford-on-Avon	West Midlands	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	0.9
Thornbury and Yate	South West	Liberal Democrats	Conservative	0.9
Heywood and Middleton North	North West	Labour	Labour	0.9
Dunfermline and Dollar	Scotland	Labour	Labour	0.9
South Dorset	South West	Labour	Labour	1.0
North West Cambridgeshire	East of England	Labour	Conservative	1.0
Isle of Wight West	South East	Labour	Labour	1.0
Rother Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	Reform UK	1.0
Harlow	East of England	Labour	Reform UK	1.0
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Wales	Labour	Labour	1.0
Slough	South East	Labour	Labour	1.1

Projected changes of hands by party

Every seat whose projected winner differs from its GE2024 winner, grouped by the gaining party, closest margin first.

Reform UK: 55 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Newton Abbot	South West	Liberal Democrats	0.0
Spen Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	0.2
Bolsover	East Midlands	Labour	0.3
St Austell and Newquay	South West	Labour	0.4
Stourbridge	West Midlands	Labour	0.4
Torfaen	Wales	Labour	0.4
Wellingborough and Rushden	East Midlands	Labour	0.5
Wyre Forest	West Midlands	Conservative	0.5
Kingston upon Hull East	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	0.6
Hyndburn	North West	Labour	0.7
Castle Point	East of England	Conservative	0.8
Torbay	South West	Liberal Democrats	0.8
Burnley	North West	Labour	0.9
Rother Valley	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	1.0
Harlow	East of England	Labour	1.0
Gravesham	South East	Labour	1.4
Dover and Deal	South East	Labour	1.4
Halesowen	West Midlands	Labour	1.4
Barnsley South	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	1.5
Havant	South East	Conservative	1.6
Plymouth Moor View	South West	Labour	1.6
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	West Midlands	Labour	1.7
Wolverhampton North East	West Midlands	Labour	1.7
Burton and Uttoxeter	West Midlands	Labour	1.8
Rochester and Strood	South East	Labour	1.9
Alyn and Deeside	Wales	Labour	1.9
Ashford	South East	Labour	2.1
Sherwood Forest	East Midlands	Labour	2.2
Neath and Swansea East	Wales	Labour	2.4
Redditch	West Midlands	Labour	2.7
Nuneaton	West Midlands	Labour	2.7
Rhondda and Ogmore	Wales	Labour	3.0
Llanelli	Wales	Labour	3.6
Gillingham and Rainham	South East	Labour	4.0
Scunthorpe	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	4.0
Stoke-on-Trent South	West Midlands	Labour	4.1
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	North West	Labour	4.8
Mansfield	East Midlands	Labour	5.0
Chatham and Aylesford	South East	Labour	5.2
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	5.2
Folkestone and Hythe	South East	Labour	5.3
Stoke-on-Trent North	West Midlands	Labour	5.8
Amber Valley	East Midlands	Labour	6.1
Tamworth	West Midlands	Labour	6.3
Basildon and Billericay	East of England	Conservative	6.4
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	South East	Labour	7.4
Lowestoft	East of England	Labour	7.7
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	7.9
North Warwickshire and Bedworth	West Midlands	Labour	8.4
Cannock Chase	West Midlands	Labour	8.5
Bridgwater	South West	Conservative	8.9
South West Norfolk	East of England	Labour	9.3
Tipton and Wednesbury	West Midlands	Labour	9.3
Dudley	West Midlands	Labour	9.4
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Wales	Labour	11.5

SNP: 32 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
East Kilbride and Strathaven	Scotland	Labour	0.5
Midlothian	Scotland	Labour	1.4
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Scotland	Labour	1.9
Glasgow West	Scotland	Labour	2.0
Airdrie and Shotts	Scotland	Labour	2.1
East Renfrewshire	Scotland	Labour	2.1
Rutherglen	Scotland	Labour	2.1
Alloa and Grangemouth	Scotland	Labour	2.4
Mid Dunbartonshire	Scotland	Liberal Democrats	2.4
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Scotland	Labour	2.7
West Dunbartonshire	Scotland	Labour	3.4
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Scotland	Labour	3.4
Central Ayrshire	Scotland	Labour	3.9
Glasgow North East	Scotland	Labour	4.3
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Scotland	Labour	4.3
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Scotland	Labour	4.6
Coatbridge and Bellshill	Scotland	Labour	5.8
Falkirk	Scotland	Labour	6.2
Edinburgh North and Leith	Scotland	Labour	6.3
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Scotland	Labour	6.5
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Scotland	Labour	6.8
Livingston	Scotland	Labour	8.0
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Scotland	Labour	8.4
Glasgow South	Scotland	Labour	8.5
Glasgow East	Scotland	Labour	9.0
Glasgow North	Scotland	Labour	9.8
Glasgow South West	Scotland	Labour	9.9
Stirling and Strathallan	Scotland	Labour	10.6
North Ayrshire and Arran	Scotland	Labour	12.2
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Scotland	Labour	14.7
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Scotland	Liberal Democrats	15.2
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Scotland	Labour	17.1

Conservative: 29 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Hendon	London	Labour	0.1
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Wales	Liberal Democrats	0.3
Lichfield	West Midlands	Labour	0.4
Worthing West	South East	Labour	0.6
Banbury	South East	Labour	0.6
Bicester and Woodstock	South East	Liberal Democrats	0.6
Thornbury and Yate	South West	Liberal Democrats	0.9
North West Cambridgeshire	East of England	Labour	1.0
Portsmouth North	South East	Labour	1.2
Horsham	South East	Liberal Democrats	1.4
Aberdeen South	Scotland	SNP	1.6
Ely and East Cambridgeshire	East of England	Liberal Democrats	1.7
Southend West and Leigh	East of England	Labour	1.8
North West Leicestershire	East Midlands	Labour	1.9
Mid Derbyshire	East Midlands	Labour	2.3
Vale of Glamorgan	Wales	Labour	2.4
Clwyd East	Wales	Labour	2.5
Newbury	South East	Liberal Democrats	2.7
Aylesbury	South East	Labour	2.8
Monmouthshire	Wales	Labour	3.0
Derbyshire Dales	East Midlands	Labour	3.1
Buckingham and Bletchley	South East	Labour	3.2
Dartford	South East	Labour	4.0
Clwyd North	Wales	Labour	4.1
Bracknell	South East	Labour	4.4
Eastleigh	South East	Liberal Democrats	4.9
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	South East	Labour	4.9
North East Hampshire	South East	Liberal Democrats	5.9
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Wales	Labour	8.1

Plaid Cymru: 3 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Caerphilly	Wales	Labour	2.9
Bangor Aberconwy	Wales	Labour	7.1
Cardiff West	Wales	Labour	8.5

Others: 2 projected gains

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley	West Midlands	Labour	3.2
Bradford West	Yorkshire and The Humber	Labour	6.2

Restore Britain: 1 projected gain

Constituency	Region	GE2024 winner	Margin (pp)
Great Yarmouth	East of England	Reform UK	17.7

All GB constituencies East of England constituencies PollCheck swingometer