Pendle and Clitheroe
North West · County constituency
About the Pendle and Clitheroe constituency
Pendle and Clitheroe is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Jonathan Hinder (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.5% to 32.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 902 votes on a 59.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 28.9% and Reform UK on 27.3%, a margin of 1.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Pendle and Clitheroe? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Pendle and Clitheroe vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Pendle and Clitheroe
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Pendle and Clitheroe within Pendle and Ribble Valley
Pendle and Clitheroe crosses council boundaries: Pendle (75%), Ribble Valley (25%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Pendle | 75% | View projection › |
| Ribble Valley | 25% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | St Mary's | LD GAIN from Lab | LD 26% Ref 25% Con 21% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | St Mary's | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnoldswick | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 33.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Reform 36.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +32.4pp | 36.8% |
| Barrowford & Pendleside | Conservative 34.5%vs Labour 34.1% | May 2026 Conservative 36.5%vs Reform 36.0% | Conservative share +2.0pp | 50.1% |
| Boulsworth & Foulridge | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 33.2% | May 2026 Reform 39.3%vs Conservative 35.8% | Conservative→Reform +9.7pp | 45.9% |
| Bradley | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 28.8% | May 2026 Others 50.2%vs Reform 18.5% | Labour→Others +39.0pp | 32.7% |
| Chatburn | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 31.7% | 2023 Conservative 65.8%vs Labour 21.6% | - | 36.7% |
| Earby & Coates | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 33.6% | May 2026 Reform 38.9%vs Lib Dem 38.6% | Conservative→Reform +22.6pp | 42.4% |
| East Whalley, Read & Simonstone | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 30.3% | 2023 Green 51.9%vs Conservative 38.8% | - | 39.0% |
| Edisford & Low Moor | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.0%vs Labour 27.3% | - | 29.7% |
| Fence & Higham | Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 32.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 53.9%vs Conservative 46.1% | - | 42.0% |
| Littlemoor | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 33.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | 27.6% |
| Marsden & Southfield | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 30.1% | May 2026 Others 38.8%vs Reform 30.1% | Labour→Others +33.5pp | 33.2% |
| Primrose | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Labour 44.0%vs Lib Dem 39.1% | - | 30.8% |
| Sabden | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Conservative 48.9%vs Labour 43.5% | - | 33.7% |
| Salthill | Conservative 33.2%vs Labour 32.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 35.1%vs Independent 29.1% | - | 40.8% |
| St Mary's | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 32.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.2%vs Conservative 30.0% | - | 38.7% |
| Vivary Bridge | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 31.4% | May 2026 Reform 41.4%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | Labour→Reform +25.7pp | 32.4% |
| Waterside & Horsfield | Labour 35.1%vs Conservative 31.0% | May 2026 Reform 39.9%vs Lib Dem 28.5% | Labour→Reform +25.0pp | 35.7% |
| Whalley & Painter Wood | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 31.7% | 2023 Conservative 44.9%vs Independent 36.0% | - | 42.5% |
| Whitefield & Walverden | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 26.5% | May 2026 Others 55.4%vs Labour 15.3% | Labour→Others +39.7pp | 29.7% |
| Wiswell & Barrow | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Independent 51.3%vs Conservative 32.6% | - | 40.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Pendle and Clitheroe at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Pendle and Clitheroe at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Andrew Stephenson Pendle MP | 30.9% | 38.9% | 20.2% | 3,585 | 67.8% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Stephenson Pendle MP | 34.9% | 47.2% | 3.3% | 5,453 | 68.8%+1.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Andrew Stephenson Pendle MP | 46.2% | 49.0% | 2.1% | 1,279 | 69.0%+0.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Andrew Stephenson Pendle MP, pre-review boundary | 33.1% | 56.9% | 7.3% | 11,568 | 63.0% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jonathan Hinder | 34.5% | 32.6% | 4.4% | 902 | 59.3%-3.7 |
Pendle and Clitheroe was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Pendle (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Pendle and Clitheroe
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Pendle and Clitheroe. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave60.9 / 65.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent12.3 / 13.7vs 16.8
- ↑Leave60.9 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave60.9 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent12.3 / 13.8vs 16.8
- ↓Social rent12.3 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 30.8vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent12.3 / 14.8vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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