Hyndburn
North West · County constituency
About the Hyndburn constituency
Hyndburn is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Sarah Smith (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 33.5% to 28.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,687 votes on a 54.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 31.9% and Labour on 29.1%, a margin of 2.8 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Hyndburn? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hyndburn vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hyndburn
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hyndburn within Hyndburn and Rossendale
Hyndburn crosses council boundaries: Hyndburn (87%), Rossendale (13%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hyndburn | 87% | View projection › |
| Rossendale | 13% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altham | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2024 Labour 64.8%vs Conservative 35.2% | - | 27.4% |
| Barnfield | Labour 34.5%vs Conservative 24.9% | 2024 Labour 58.1%vs Conservative 26.5% | - | 28.3% |
| Baxenden | Conservative 33.6%vs Labour 31.1% | 2024 Labour 51.1%vs Conservative 48.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Central | Labour 34.2%vs Conservative 29.5% | 2024 Green 41.9%vs Conservative 26.4% | - | 49.4% |
| Church | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2024 Labour 37.7%vs Green 31.3% | - | 32.7% |
| Clayton-le-Moors | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 30.4% | May 2026 Reform 47.6%vs Labour 28.2% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | 40.5% |
| Greenfield & Eden | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2024 Conservative 45.3%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 40.4% |
| Huncoat | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Reform 49.1%vs Labour 23.9% | Labour→Reform +20.1pp | 40.6% |
| Immanuel | Conservative 32.3%vs Labour 27.9% | May 2026 Conservative 46.3%vs Reform 36.9% | Conservative share +14.0pp | 41.5% |
| Milnshaw | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 24.0% | May 2026 Reform 50.0%vs Green 24.4% | Labour→Reform +24.1pp | 33.8% |
| Netherton | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 26.7% | May 2026 Labour 41.5%vs Reform 36.4% | Labour share +5.4pp | 41.4% |
| Overton | Labour 35.6%vs Conservative 29.7% | May 2026 Reform 44.6%vs Labour 30.6% | Labour→Reform +14.6pp | 41.8% |
| Peel | Labour 36.9%vs Conservative 22.0% | May 2026 Reform 42.0%vs Green 21.9% | Labour→Reform +19.8pp | 30.2% |
| Rishton | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 31.8% | May 2026 Reform 49.8%vs Conservative 20.7% | Conservative→Reform +20.8pp | 37.3% |
| Spring Hill | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 24.6% | May 2026 Others 29.2%vs Labour 27.7% | Labour→Others +19.1pp | 38.4% |
| St Andrew's | Labour 30.5%vs Conservative 29.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Conservative 35.2% | Labour→Reform +18.0pp | 36.8% |
| St Oswald's | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 29.4% | May 2026 Reform 44.4%vs Conservative 40.2% | Conservative→Reform +12.2pp | 45.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hyndburn at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hyndburn at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Graham Jones | 41.1% | 33.8% | 11.8% | 3,090 | 63.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Graham Jones | 42.1% | 31.9% | 2.0% | 4,400 | 62.8%-0.7 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Graham Jones | 53.4% | 40.5% | 1.8% | 5,815 | 63.1%+0.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Sara Britcliffe 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.5% | 48.5% | 2.9% | 2,951 | 59.6%-3.5 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sarah Smith | 33.5% | 28.9% | 3.3% | 1,687 | 54.2%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hyndburn
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hyndburn. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.8 / 66.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 24.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 24.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave65.8 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 28.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 21.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 22.3vs 18.0
- ↑Leave65.8 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑Leave65.8 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 27.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 20.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave65.8 / 64.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals22.5 / 21.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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