Constituency profile

Halifax

Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Calderdale borough

Kate Dearden MP
Sitting MP

Kate Dearden

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
Borough constituency, Calderdale council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
58.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +6.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +5.4pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
NorthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Halifax constituency

Halifax is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Kate Dearden (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.1% to 19.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,269 votes on a 51.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 26.1% and Labour on 20.7%, a margin of 5.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Halifax? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
58.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
60.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
39.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
39.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
30.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Halifax vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,269 votes (15.5pp) · turnout 51.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Halifax

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Halifax within Calderdale

Halifax sits entirely within Calderdale Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Calderdale
67 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Illingworth and MixendenLabour 37.9%vs Reform 22.8%May 2026 Reform 60.6%vs Labour 20.8%
Labour→Reform
+27.5pp
-
Northowram and ShelfConservative 25.6%vs Labour 23.0%May 2026 Green 46.1%vs Reform 43.2%
Conservative→Green
+23.8pp
-
OvendenLabour 35.1%vs Reform 22.5%May 2026 Reform 59.2%vs Labour 23.2%
Labour→Reform
+24.3pp
-
ParkLabour 43.4%vs Reform 15.3%May 2026 Others 44.9%vs Labour 21.6%
Labour→Others
+33.3pp
-
RyburnLabour 36.5%vs Conservative 30.4%May 2026 Reform 35.0%vs Conservative 17.2%
Labour→Reform
+21.1pp
-
SkircoatLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 21.0%May 2026 Reform 49.8%vs Labour 24.0%now part of Salterhebble Southowram Skircoat Green
Labour→Reform
+24.1pp
-
Sowerby BridgeLabour 36.5%vs Conservative 19.9%May 2026 Reform 40.2%vs Labour 37.6%
Labour→Reform
+10.4pp
-
TownLabour 35.1%vs Reform 21.6%May 2026 Reform 37.8%vs Labour 27.3%now part of Halifax Town
Labour→Reform
+12.0pp
-
WarleyLabour 34.2%vs Reform 18.4%May 2026 Lib Dem 33.8%vs Reform 30.0%
Labour→Lib Dem
+18.7pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Halifax at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Halifax at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdLinda Riordan37.4%34.0%19.1%1.5% UKIP-8.0%1,47261.9%
2015Lab holdHolly Lynch40.0%39.0%3.7%12.8% UKIP2.6%1.8%42862.1%+0.2
2017Lab holdHolly Lynch52.8%41.7%2.2%3.2% UKIP--5,37667.8%+5.7
2019notionalLabour winnerHolly Lynch 2019 MP, pre-review boundary45.6%41.7%4.8%-2.0%5.9%1,90264.1%-3.7
2024Lab holdKate Dearden35.1%19.6%5.9%19.4% Ref10.3%9.7%6,26951.9%-12.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Halifax

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Halifax. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.