Oldham East and Saddleworth
North West · County constituency · Oldham borough
About the Oldham East and Saddleworth constituency
Oldham East and Saddleworth is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Debbie Abrahams (Labour), first elected in January 2011. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.2% to 19.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,357 votes on a 54.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.6% and Labour on 27.6%, a margin of 2.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Oldham East and Saddleworth? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Oldham East and Saddleworth vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Oldham East and Saddleworth
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Oldham East and Saddleworth within Oldham
Oldham East and Saddleworth sits entirely within Oldham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra | Labour 36.9%vs Others 19.8% | May 2026 Others 45.0%vs Labour 27.3% | Labour→Others +27.3pp | 45.0% |
| Coldhurst | Others 46.5%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Others 44.4%vs Labour 32.2% | Others→Others +45.5pp | 45.9% |
| Crompton | Labour 33.5%vs Reform 21.0% | May 2026 Reform 47.3%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | Labour→Reform +26.9pp | 47.8% |
| Saddleworth North | Labour 33.6%vs Reform 20.8% | May 2026 Reform 40.8%vs Lib Dem 30.0% | Labour→Reform +21.8pp | 54.5% |
| Saddleworth South | Labour 33.4%vs Reform 20.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.0%vs Reform 35.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +23.2pp | 54.8% |
| Saddleworth West & Lees | Labour 34.2%vs Reform 21.1% | May 2026 Reform 44.0%vs Lib Dem 39.9% | Labour→Reform +25.2pp | 49.4% |
| Shaw | Labour 34.3%vs Reform 21.0% | May 2026 Reform 44.4%vs Lib Dem 27.2% | Labour→Reform +24.0pp | 47.1% |
| St James' | Labour 35.9%vs Reform 21.4% | May 2026 Reform 60.8%vs Labour 18.1% | Labour→Reform +28.6pp | 39.5% |
| St Mary's | Labour 38.4%vs Others 24.0% | May 2026 Others 53.0%vs Labour 30.4% | Labour→Others +30.5pp | 51.8% |
| Waterhead | Labour 36.1%vs Reform 18.3% | May 2026 Reform 34.4%vs Others 27.5% | Labour→Reform +14.8pp | 46.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Oldham East and Saddleworth at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Oldham East and Saddleworth at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Phil Woolas | 31.9% | 26.4% | 31.6% | 103 | 61.4% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Debbie Abrahams | 39.4% | 25.9% | 12.9% | 6,002 | 62.2%+0.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Debbie Abrahams | 54.5% | 37.1% | 3.6% | 8,182 | 65.2%+3.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Debbie Abrahams 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 43.5% | 40.3% | 5.2% | 1,499 | 63.2%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Debbie Abrahams | 35.2% | 17.1% | 8.5% | 6,357 | 54.5%-8.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Oldham East and Saddleworth
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Oldham East and Saddleworth. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↓Employed52.8 / 52.8vs 57.3
- ↑Leave59.9 / 58.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.1 / 22.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 22.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 63.6vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.1 / 25.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 24.6vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.9 / 66.6vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.1 / 24.8vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.9 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate26.8 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.1 / 23.4vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.