Ashton-under-Lyne
North West · Borough constituency · Tameside
About the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency
Ashton-under-Lyne is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Angela Rayner (Labour), MP since May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 24.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,791 votes on a 49.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.4% and Reform UK on 36.1%, a margin of 7.3 points.
Who lives in Ashton-under-Lyne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ashton-under-Lyne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ashton-under-Lyne
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ashton-under-Lyne within Tameside
Ashton-under-Lyne sits entirely within Tameside Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Tameside | 100% | 2026 result › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Hurst | Labour 41.7%vs Reform 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 37.7%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Reform +17.1pp | 43.0% |
| Ashton St Michael's | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 22.8% | May 2026 Reform 37.0%vs Labour 26.8% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | 37.2% |
| Ashton Waterloo | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 23.9% | May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Labour 23.4% | Labour→Reform +17.8pp | 44.5% |
| Audenshaw | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Labour 23.1% | Labour→Reform +18.2pp | 44.2% |
| Droylsden East | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 48.9%vs Labour 23.3% | Labour→Reform +20.5pp | 39.6% |
| Droylsden West | Labour 44.9%vs Reform 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 46.0%vs Labour 20.6% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | 40.9% |
| Dukinfield | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Reform 49.2%vs Labour 23.5% | Labour→Reform +21.7pp | 35.1% |
| St Peter's | Labour 49.4%vs Reform 23.3% | May 2026 Others 39.8%vs Labour 36.7% | Labour→Others +26.2pp | 38.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ashton-under-Lyne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ashton-under-Lyne at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | David Heyes | 48.4% | 24.7% | 14.8% | 9,094 | 56.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 49.8% | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10,756 | 56.9%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 60.4% | 32.0% | 1.6% | 11,295 | 58.8%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Angela Rayner 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 47.5% | 36.2% | 4.3% | 4,689 | 57.2%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 43.9% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 6,791 | 49.9%-7.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ashton-under-Lyne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ashton-under-Lyne. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.6vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent22.5 / 21.3vs 16.8
- ↑Leave61.8 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.3vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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