Ashton-under-Lyne
North West · Borough constituency · Tameside borough
About the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency
Ashton-under-Lyne is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Angela Rayner (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 24.8% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,791 votes on a 49.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.8% and Reform UK on 34.3%, a margin of 0.5 points.
Who lives in Ashton-under-Lyne? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ashton-under-Lyne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ashton-under-Lyne
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ashton-under-Lyne within Tameside
Ashton-under-Lyne sits entirely within Tameside Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Tameside | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Hurst | Labour 41.7%vs Reform 23.5% | May 2026 Reform 37.7%vs Labour 21.5% | Labour→Reform +17.1pp | 43.0% |
| Ashton St Michael's | Labour 45.0%vs Reform 22.8% | May 2026 Reform 37.0%vs Labour 26.8% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | 37.2% |
| Ashton Waterloo | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 23.9% | May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Labour 23.4% | Labour→Reform +17.8pp | 44.5% |
| Audenshaw | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Labour 23.1% | Labour→Reform +18.2pp | 44.2% |
| Droylsden East | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 48.9%vs Labour 23.3% | Labour→Reform +20.5pp | 39.6% |
| Droylsden West | Labour 44.9%vs Reform 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 46.0%vs Labour 20.6% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | 40.9% |
| Dukinfield | Labour 43.4%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Reform 49.2%vs Labour 23.5% | Labour→Reform +21.7pp | 35.1% |
| St Peter's | Labour 49.4%vs Reform 23.3% | May 2026 Others 39.8%vs Labour 36.7% | Labour→Others +26.2pp | 38.3% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ashton-under-Lyne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ashton-under-Lyne at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | David Heyes | 48.4% | 24.7% | 14.8% | 9,094 | 56.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 49.8% | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10,756 | 56.9%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 60.4% | 32.0% | 1.6% | 11,295 | 58.8%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Angela Rayner 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 47.5% | 36.2% | 4.3% | 4,689 | 57.2%-1.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Angela Rayner | 43.9% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 6,791 | 49.9%-7.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ashton-under-Lyne
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ashton-under-Lyne. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.6vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent22.5 / 21.3vs 16.8
- ↑Leave61.8 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.0vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 61.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 25.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals23.4 / 24.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave61.8 / 58.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.4 / 22.3vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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