Newport East
Wales · County constituency · Newport borough
About the Newport East constituency
Newport East is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Jessica Morden (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.5% to 19.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 9,009 votes on a 50.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 27.0% and Reform UK on 24.2%, a margin of 2.8 points.
Who lives in Newport East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newport East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newport East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Newport East voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Newport East sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Casnewydd Islwyn. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Newport East | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casnewydd Islwyn | 98% | Reform UK 32.9% | Plaid Cymru 29.7% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Labour, 1 Conservative |
| Sir Fynwy Torfaen | 2% | Reform UK 31.1% | Plaid Cymru 23.5% | 2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Newport East within Newport
Newport East sits entirely within Newport Council. Newport was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Newport | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alway | Labour 44.5%vs Reform 19.2% | 2022 Labour 67.9%vs Conservative 21.0% | - | 26.0% |
| Beechwood | Labour 46.3%vs Reform 18.0% | 2022 Labour 65.4%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | - | 32.0% |
| Bettws | Labour 39.4%vs Reform 23.7% | 2022 Others 49.4%vs Labour 38.4% | - | 25.0% |
| Bishton and Langstone | Labour 33.8%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2022 Conservative 59.4%vs Labour 31.5% | - | 34.0% |
| Caerleon | Labour 41.6%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2022 Labour 51.1%vs Conservative 43.3% | - | 41.0% |
| Llanwern | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2022 Conservative 63.8%vs Labour 30.4% | - | 38.0% |
| Lliswerry | Labour 39.0%vs Reform 22.1% | 2022 Independent 63.6%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 31.0% |
| Malpas | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 20.7% | 2022 Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 37.0% |
| Pillgwenlly | Labour 49.8%vs Reform 19.2% | 2022 Labour 52.8%vs Others 21.3% | - | 33.0% |
| Ringland | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 21.9% | 2022 Labour 66.9%vs Conservative 26.8% | - | 25.0% |
| Shaftesbury | Labour 45.2%vs Reform 19.0% | 2022 Labour 39.8%vs Green 36.7% | - | 32.0% |
| St Julians | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 17.9% | 2022 Labour 45.5%vs Lib Dem 38.0% | - | 34.0% |
| Stow Hill | Labour 44.6%vs Reform 20.0% | 2022 Labour 65.0%vs Conservative 23.2% | - | 31.0% |
| Victoria | Labour 46.4%vs Reform 17.8% | 2022 Labour 53.0%vs Conservative 24.2% | - | 34.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newport East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newport East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jessica Morden | 37.0% | 23.0% | 32.2% | 1,650 | 63.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Jessica Morden | 40.7% | 27.3% | 6.4% | 4,705 | 62.7%-0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jessica Morden | 56.5% | 34.8% | 2.6% | 8,003 | 64.3%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jessica Morden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 47.5% | 36.2% | 5.7% | 5,239 | 60.9%-3.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Jessica Morden | 42.5% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 9,009 | 50.2%-10.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newport East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newport East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave59.3 / 59.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.3 / 59.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 27.0vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 22.7vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.3 / 59.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 26.3vs 33.7
- ↑No quals24.0 / 20.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave59.3 / 61.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals24.0 / 23.4vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave59.3 / 58.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.9 / 31.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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