Constituency profile

Stalybridge and Hyde

North West · County constituency · Tameside borough

Jonathan Reynolds MP
Sitting MP

Jonathan Reynolds

Labour (Co-op)

First elected May 2010Cabinet: Secretary of State for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
County constituency, Tameside council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
59.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +7.4pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +3.1pp
vs Reform UK 31.3%
NorthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the Stalybridge and Hyde constituency

Stalybridge and Hyde is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Jonathan Reynolds (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 20.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,539 votes on a 51.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 34.4% and Reform UK on 31.3%, a margin of 3.1 points.

Who lives in Stalybridge and Hyde? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
59.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
62.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
37.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
29.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Stalybridge and Hyde vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 8,539 votes (22.9pp) · turnout 51.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stalybridge and Hyde

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stalybridge and Hyde within Tameside

Stalybridge and Hyde sits entirely within Tameside Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Tameside
58 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Dukinfield StalybridgeLabour 43.7%vs Reform 22.7%May 2026 Reform 48.0%vs Labour 23.9%
Labour→Reform
+22.5pp
40.5%
Hyde GodleyLabour 44.8%vs Reform 20.9%May 2026 Reform 35.8%vs Labour 21.4%
Labour→Reform
+19.2pp
42.0%
Hyde NewtonLabour 45.0%vs Reform 22.0%May 2026 Reform 45.1%vs Labour 21.4%
Labour→Reform
+23.4pp
35.6%
Hyde WernethLabour 42.9%vs Conservative 22.4%May 2026 Reform 29.9%vs Conservative 28.3%
Labour→Reform
+15.7pp
45.2%
LongdendaleLabour 45.2%vs Reform 20.4%May 2026 Reform 45.5%vs Labour 26.2%
Labour→Reform
+22.1pp
35.3%
MossleyLabour 46.1%vs Reform 19.3%May 2026 Reform 39.3%vs Labour 37.5%
Labour→Reform
+14.3pp
46.8%
Stalybridge NorthLabour 43.4%vs Reform 21.6%May 2026 Reform 47.7%vs Green 26.6%
Labour→Reform
+25.1pp
38.9%
Stalybridge SouthLabour 39.5%vs Conservative 23.0%May 2026 Reform 33.7%vs Conservative 30.6%
Labour→Reform
+18.9pp
43.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stalybridge and Hyde at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stalybridge and Hyde at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdJonathan Reynolds39.6%32.9%17.0%3.3% UKIP1.7%5.5%2,74459.2%
2015Lab holdJonathan Reynolds45.0%28.7%3.1%18.8% UKIP4.5%-6,68657.5%-1.7
2017Lab holdJonathan Reynolds57.2%38.1%2.3%-2.3%-8,08459.5%+2.0
2019notionalLabour winnerJonathan Reynolds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary44.9%38.0%4.3%-3.3%9.5%2,94658.0%-1.5
2024Lab holdJonathan Reynolds43.8%18.5%2.9%20.9% Ref7.4%6.6%8,53951.5%-6.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Stalybridge and Hyde

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stalybridge and Hyde. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.